Gold a bit weaker just ahead of FOMC meeting

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly lower in midday U.S. trading Monday. Silver is trading near steady. A sharply higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices to start the trading week are bearish outside market forces for the metals markets. December gold was last down $3.80 at $1,641.20 and December silver was up $0.018 at $19.165.

Trading action in gold and silver may be more subdued until mid-week, as traders are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Most expect the FOMC to raise the Fed funds rate by another 0.75%. Traders and investors also want to see what comments the FOMC and Powell make regarding the future path of U.S. monetary policy—specifically, when the Fed will back off the accelerator on aggressively raising interest rates.

Global stock markets were flat to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Stock traders are exiting the historically rocky months of September and October with near-term price uptrends in place on the daily charts, including technically bullish weekly high closes last Friday.


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The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $86.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.04%.

In overnight news, Euro zone inflation continues to run hot. The October consumer price index came in at up 10.7%, year-on-year, after a rise of 9.9% in September. The CPI was forecast at up 10% for October.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,650.00 and then at last Friday’s high of $1,670.90. First support is seen at $1,630.00 and then at the October low of $1,641.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $21.31. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.40. First resistance is seen at $19.50 and then at last week’s high of $19.765. Next support is seen at today’s low of $18.865 and then at $18.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 475 points at 338.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 324.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at the October high of 359.30 cents. First support is seen at the October low of 330.30 cents and then at 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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