(Kitco News) After a strong $50 move higher on Friday, does gold have a chance at a breakout? TD Securities says it's too early for gold to move, citing strong ETF outflows and bloated long positioning.
December Comex gold futures were last trading at $1,681.90, up 0.32% on the day after climbing from a low of around $1,630 registered Friday morning. Gold's turnaround came after the latest U.S. jobs report clarified some of the Federal Reserve's mixed messages, and China signaled a possible easing of its Covid-Zero policy.
"Despite a hawkish Fed meeting, commodity prices are staging a rally off year-to-date lows amid speculation that China will ease its restrictive zero-Covid policies. Precious metals prices are further being supported as bloated money manager shorts are squeezed by a weakening broad dollar index, sending gold prices trading back towards $1675/oz," said TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali.
TD has looked at positioning in gold, and it is not convinced that the overall downtrend is about to shift on a permanent basis.
"Our analysis suggests that CTA trend follower positioning largely explains changes in the CFTC's money manager positioning data. And, our model doesn't point to substantial short covering from CTAs below $1720/oz," Ghali said. "Given little CTA short covering expected, these are the culprits behind the ongoing squeeze. Ongoing ETF outflows and a still-bloated prop-trader long positions will likely cap the rally in gold."
Friday's news of the 2-year Treasury yield rising more than 50 basis points and pushing above the 10-year yield — a key recession gauge that was near 40-year highs — also helped gold out.
"The market is thinking that the economy is slowing down, and that is reflected in the yield curve here, with the 2-year and the 10-year," TD Securities global head of commodity markets strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News.
But despite the stellar performance, the longer-term trend for gold remains bearish. "This is most likely a short squeeze type of rally that should be sold here," Melek said. "It's too early for gold to move up. The Fed is not finished yet."
TD Securities is projecting for gold to fall below $1,600 in the next few months as it sees the federal funds rate peaking at 5.5% instead of the previous projections of below 5%.
"As the economy slows, you will start seeing real rates jump. And central banks won't be buying as much gold as they did this last quarter. The cost of carrying will be expensive," Melek added.
