(Kitco News) - According to industry consensus data, global mine production of copper amounted to ~21.1 million tonnes in 2021, which is 2% higher than in 2020 (~20.7 million tonnes). Chile was the top copper producer, followed by Peru and China.
Global mine copper production is expected to reach 22 million tonnes in 2022 (up 4% compared to 2021). Mine copper production is expected to increase to 23 million tonnes in 2023 and then to 24 million tonnes in 2024.
This growth will be largely driven by increased production in Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Chile and Peru are forecast to remain the largest copper producers in the coming years, accounting for about 25% and 12% of world production in 2024, respectively.
Elsewhere, significant investment in capacity in Indonesia is expected to be one of the biggest drivers of world production growth in 2022-2024.
However, there are a number of structural issues weighing against significant increases in copper production over the medium-term and beyond, including declining ore grades, aging facilities and increasing production costs.
Environmental and social responsibility issues are other factors likely to have impact on copper production, as seen in the delays of a number of projects around the world.
In addition, most of the new copper projects under development lack the scale of existing mega projects.
According to some forecasts, the global copper market is expected to trend into a modest surplus in 2023-2024, putting minor downward pressure on prices. However, there is potential for upward pressure if production from Chile and Peru disappoints.
