Gold rallies on weak U.S. data, spike in crude oil

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are solidly higher and silver near steady in midday U.S. trading Monday. Gold is getting a boost from a downbeat U.S. economic report, sharply higher crude oil prices, a lower U.S. dollar index and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields. April gold was last up $21.00 at $1,990.00 and May silver up down $0.009 at $24.17.

The weekend surprise OPEC-plus cut in its collective crude oil production by just over 1 million barrels a day is on the front burner of the marketplace to start the trading week. Oil prices spiked on the news, with Nymex crude oil prices presently up $4.54 a barrel at $80.18. Rallying crude oil prices are bullish for the entire raw commodity sector, including the metals.

Meantime, the March U.S. ISM manufacturing report showed activity dropped to the lowest level since May of 2020. The March factory activity reading of 46.3 was lower than both the prior reading of 47.7 and consensus estimate of 47.5. "Everything in this report was weak. Prices paid fell from 51.3 to 49.2, while employment plunged from 49.1 to 46.9. Demand is falling off a cliff as new orders plunged from 47.0 to 44.3. Inventories are contracting and demand continues to soften," said Ed Moya of OANDA. This report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see lower interest rates sooner. The report also helped to pressure the U.S. dollar index.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday.

The other key outside market today sees the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.41%--down a bit from late last week's levels.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, April gold futures prices scored a bullish "outside day" up today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the March high of $2,014.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at $2,014.90. First support is seen at $1,975.00 and then at today's low of $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

May silver futures prices hit a two-month high today. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $24.335 and then at $24.60. Next support is seen at today's low of $23.725 and then at $23.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 475 points at 404.70 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.90 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 409.75 and then at last week's high of 414.85 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 402.15 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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