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(Kitco News) - What started as some technical selling pressure in gold early Friday has become a full-on rout as the precious metal gave up most of its weekly gains Friday.
However, heading into the weekend, many analysts said the market has been overdue for a healthy correction, and this could lead to a long-term sustainable rally to new all-time highs. The latest Kitco News Gold Survey shows that retail investors remain solidly bullish on gold in the near term; however, Wall Street analysts are taking a more cautious stance.
"Gold has had a great run lately, but it looks like upward momentum is slowing a bit and it appears due for a technical correction with potential support near $2,000 or $1,960," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that it's not surprising that gold and silver are seeing some selling pressure Friday as a lot of the bullish news that has driven this month-long rally starts to fade. He noted that markets are getting comfortable with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May. At the same time, fears of a collapse of the U.S. banking system have started to ease, reducing safe-haven demand for gold.
Although prices could remain under pressure in the near term, Streible said that the market remains in a solid uptrend.
"If we close below $1,953. Yeah. That would signal the bull trend has ended, and gold has moved into a neutral position," he said.
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco.com, said he remains bullish on gold as he sees gold's selloff as a corrective pullback.
"A drop below the April low of $1,965.90 would negate the near-term price uptrend to begin to suggest a market top is in place," he said.
This week, 23 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Among the participants, nine analysts, or 39%, were bullish on gold in the near term. At the same time, six analysts, or 26%, were bearish for next week, and eight analysts, or 35%, saw prices trading sideways.
Meanwhile, 1,347 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 930 respondents, or 68%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 278, or 20%, said it would be lower, while 156 voters, or 11%, were neutral in the near term.
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Despite Friday's selloff, retail investors expect gold to regain its luster with next week's average target at $2,047 an ounce. The bullish outlook comes as gold prices end Friday at $2,008.10 an ounce, roughly neutral from Monday's open. However, prices are down nearly 1% from Thursday's close ahead of the Easter Long Weekend.
Looking to next week's price action, many analysts have said that traders and investors need to pay attention to the U.S. dollar. Friday, the U.S. dollar index created a double bottom, falling to 100.79, hitting a new intraday low for 2023.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, said that he might be crazy not to be bullish on gold; however, he added that the precious metal looks a little toppy and the U.S. dollar selloff is overdone.
"The contract is in a position to complete a bearish 2-day reversal on its short-term daily chart. While not the most reliable of reversal patterns, it would indicate - again - the previous short-term 5-wave uptrend has come to an end. In other news, while the US dollar index extended its long-term downtrend below the February low of 100.82, it is now short-term oversold and could see a short-term bounce," he said.
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However, Newsom added that looking past the short-term price action, long-term trends in gold and the greenback remain in place.
"None of this changes the long-term trends of either gold (up) or the US dollar Index (down)," he said.
Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he also sees the U.S. dollar and bond yields as oversold.
"If they correct higher, gold will lose its bid. While $2000 may offer some psychological support, we suspect the $1990 area is more important," he said.
