Gold price up slightly as major U.S. data looms

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
Published
Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are slightly higher and silver slightly lower in early U.S. trading Monday. The marketplace is quieter just ahead of the U.S. central bank monetary policy meeting and key U.S. inflation reports. August gold was last up $1.90 at $1,979.10 and July silver was down $0.065 at $24.345.

The U.S. data point of the week is the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. A majority of the marketplace still thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. However, a stronger U.S. jobs report last Friday has bolstered those outliers who are thinking the Fed will make another rate hike this week.

Other important U.S. economic reports out this week include the consumer and producer price index reports for May on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The CPI is forecast up 4.0%, year-on-year, while the PPI is seen down 0.1%, month-on-month.

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European stock indexes were mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It may be a quieter trading day Monday, just ahead of an important batch of economic data released this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $68.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.743%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.  

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,949.60. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,987.80 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,968.40 and then at the May low of $1,949.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $24.62 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $24.16 and then at $24.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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