Gold, silver down amid rising bond yields, hawkish Fed-speak

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
Published
Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, with silver prices sharply down and hitting a four-week low. The precious metals are seeing selling interest on rising U.S. Treasury yields, hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official, and as the near-term technical postures for both markets have turned slightly bearish. December gold was last down $8.10 at $1,968.00 and September silver was down $0.491 at $23.23.

Some hawkish “Fed speak” over the weekend also dampened the metals market bulls today. Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman expressed the potential need for further increases in U.S. interest rates to successfully lower inflation to the Fed's target of 2%. Despite recent data suggesting a slow inflation trend, Bowman recommended consistent evidence proving inflation is significantly moving toward the 2% target. Additionally, Fed officials Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee analyzed recent jobs data and suggested that the labor market is improving, which might prompt the Fed to reconsider how long they should maintain the current elevated rates.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are firmer at midday.

Key U.S. and China inflation reports this week will be the major data points for the marketplace. The U.S. consumer price index for July is out Thursday, followed by the July producer price index on Friday. July CPI is expected to uptick a bit from the June report, seen at up 3.3%, year-on-year, compared to the 3.0% rise in June. The PPI in July is also expected to rise slightly from June.


Central banks become net gold buyers in June, ending three-month selling streak

Traders will also be closely watching the U.S. Treasury market this week, as prices have been dropping (yields rising).

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $82.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.088%.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, December gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advangtage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $2,028.60. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,939.20. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,981.70 and then at $1,992.20. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,954.50 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures prices hit a four-week low today. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $25.475. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $22.34. First resistance is seen at today's high of $23.775 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at the July low of $22.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 400 points at 382.75 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 418.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 387.70 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 382.05 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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