(Kitco News) - After a relatively quiet year, the gold market saw a sprint to the finish line, pushing prices to record highs in the final month of the year. That final drive helped to push the precious metal’s price action well above analysts' expectations.
Wednesday, the London Bullion Market Association announced the winners of its 2023 price forecast competition. Bruce Ikemizu, chief director and precious metals specialist at the Japan Bullion Market Association, won the top gold award for his average forecast of $1,950 an ounce, only $10 off the actual average LBMA price of $1,940.54 an ounce for 2023.
In second place was Ross Norman, CEO of Metals Daily Ltd, with his forecast of $1,959, followed by Keisuke Okui, precious metals analyst at Sumitomo Corp, with his $1,905 forecast.
“Gold hit an all-time high of $2,078.40 on 28 December (LBMA Gold Price), a peak which underscored the yellow metal’s rise throughout 2023,” the LBMA said in the announcement.
Gold’s price action surpassed LBMA’s initial analyst estimates; at the start of 2023, analysts expected gold prices to average at $1,859 an ounce last year.
In the silver market, Joni Teves, precious metals analyst at UBS, won the top award with her forecast of $23.30 an ounce, only four cents below the actual LBMA annual price.
The LBMA silver price average was slightly down from the 2023 average price forecast of $23.65 an ounce. However, the report noted that silver rallied nearly $2 compared to the 2022 average price of $21.73.
The LBMA said the silver market winner saw a close race with Kieran Tompkins, commodities economist at Capital Economics, who came in second with his forecast of $23.60. Third place was tied between Robin Bhar, founder of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, and Jonathan Butler, precious metals analyst at Mitsubishi Corporation, with matching forecasts of $23.
Meanwhile, the bears earned the top spots in platinum group metals. Marcus Garvey, Managing Director at Macquarie Group, took the top prize for the platinum market with his bearish estimate of $988. The LBMA noted that Garvey was the most bearish of all the analysts.
However, even Garvey’s estimate was optimistic compared to the actual 2023 average price of $964.98 an ounce.
“Considering the highest average forecast of $1,241 for platinum, the actual prices for 2023 highlighted a significant drop compared to analysts’ – and market – expectations,” the LBMA said. “All analysts revealed a more bullish outlook compared to the 2022 average price of $960.51, just $4 lower than the average price in 2023.”
Edward Gardner, commodity economist at Capital Economics, came in second place with his forecast of $1,000 an ounce, and third spot went to Jacob Smith from Metals Focus with his $1,020 an ounce estimate.
Finally, the palladium contest came down to the wire between Alexander Zumpfe at Heraeus Metals and Thorsten Polleit, who was with Degussa at the time, who had matching forecasts of $1,550, forcing the LBMA to implement its tie-breaker rules.
“This meant that Alexander Zumpfe pipped Thorsten to the post, as his forecast range was closest to the actual range,” the LBMA said.
Third place went to Butler with his forecast of $1,600 an ounce.
The analysts with the top price estimates will win a one-ounce gold bar donated by The Perth Mint Australia.
