Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle to gain momentum near support/resistance at $40,000 amid outflows from Grayscale, which transferred 12,213 BTC to Coinbase Prime for sale on Thursday as they continue to field redemption requests.
The BTC transferred today equates to $488 million at the current spot price and brings the running total for GBTC outflows since Jan. 12 to 105,910 BTC worth approximately $4.168 billion, according to data provided by Arkham Intelligence.
While there are still more than 500,000 BTC held by Grayscale, Bitcoin proponents are hopeful that the heavy outflows will subside as daily transfers begin to decrease. On Wednesday, the fund transferred 19,236 BTC to Coinbase, 7,000 more than on Thursday, which some have taken as a sign that the selling is beginning to subside.
According to Ki Young Ju, co-founder and CEO of market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, “GBTC holdings fell 15% in the last 7 days,” and are “projected to reach zero by mid-March” if the trend continues.
$GBTC holdings fell 15% in the last 7 days.
If this trend continues, it is projected to reach zero by mid-March. What's their plan?https://t.co/j0CKPZTXSe pic.twitter.com/IXrJ4W5KT3— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) January 25, 2024
Despite the outflows from Grayscale and the pressure they have put on BTC price, Ju said that the entrance of blue-chip ‘TradFi’ players into the market means that “the next bull run is expected to be faster and more spectacular than before.”
Numerous analysts have cited the GBTC Bitcoin sales as the main headwind facing the market, but according to crypto analyst Jamie Coutts, “Bitcoin is stuck with the dollar.”
BTC vs. inverted US dollar. Source: X
“Once the $DXY breaks 99.5-101 there is little support until the low 90's,” Coutts said. “$BTC would likely reach new ATHs in that scenario.”
In a separate post, Coutts noted that “Mid-cycle overheating has been a feature of the last 2 Bitcoin cycles,” and said, “This time was no different.”
“The positioning in the [derivatives] market was almost cycle-peak-level insanity,” he added. “The question is whether this pullback is more like 2016 or 2019. My bet is on the former.”
A follow-up commentator noted that this means Bitcoin “will keep fluctuating sideways rather than [experience] an extremely sharp sell-off.”
According to MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe, BTC may be nearing the end of its current correction, and the range low will likely fall in the region between $36,000 - $39,000.
#Bitcoin is getting toward the final stages of this correction.
We're seeing volatility decrease from here, as the markets have witnessed a 20% correction in 10 days.
The range-low is still $36-39K, and upward momentum to the halving is likely from here. pic.twitter.com/2i5WzczD1a— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 25, 2024
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $39,780, a decrease of 0.44% on the 24-hour chart.
