Bitcoin (BTC) looks to end the week on a strong note as the top crypto spiked above $42,000 on Coinbase on Friday, with bulls looking to flip the level back to support after being overwhelmed by bearish forces on Monday.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
The price surge comes as the net flows for the spot Bitcoin ETFs begin to normalize, with the amount being sold by Grayscale decreasing, while other products steadily accumulate.
Update for day 10 of the #Bitcoin ETF Cointucky derby. Volumes and flows are both slowing down a bit. Another slight negative day on flows. Total net flows stand at +$744 million. $IBIT likely crosses 2 billion in assets today pic.twitter.com/apSLYRT6Vp
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 26, 2024
While Bitcoin is showing strength to close out the week, crypto analyst Chris Burniske thinks the rally may be short-lived, and a lower BTC price is coming.
“Continue to think we go lower to consolidate than most people expect due to variables that are too many to explain in detail via tweet (eg, crypto-market specific, macro, adoption, new product development),” Burniske tweeted. “As for the denial out there... takes time for partiers to sober up, saw lots of drunkenness over the last ~month.”
He said that in his opinion, Bitcoin will need to fall into the range between $30,000 and $36,000 before it hits a “local bottom,” and he “wouldn't be surprised if we test the mid-to-high 20s before all is said and done, and we can make an actual move towards previous ATHs.”
“The path to get there will be volatile – expect fakeouts, and will take months to play out,” he warned. “As always, patience is your friend.”
And if this prediction is correct, Burniske said “other names will drop more in % terms than $BTC,” but refrained from elaborating or providing any specific examples.
Getting out ahead of detractors who will say this cycle is just getting started, Burniske said he “mostly agrees” with that, and continues to “believe the long-term trend remains robust,” but has “also seen a lot of crypto volatility over the last decade-plus,” and knows crypto charts don’t go up in a straight line.
“Don't ignore we also just saw many of our first parabolas of the cycle, and they're now breaking... and macro looks precarious on a # of levels,” he said. “New product innovations are close, but not quite there yet... things still feel insular. Never said I'm majorly de-risking, more just counting my bullets and sharpening my blade.”
Offering a more bullish outlook is crypto analyst Jason Pizzino, who told his YouTube followers that he sees an explosive rally for Bitcoin approaching once it manages to flip the cycle high of $49,000 into support.
“The second half of 2024 is when things get a little clearer… We’ve got that top in at $49,000,” he said. “So it might be a little while until we break through that top for BTC. But once we do, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, real estate, Bitcoin, cryptos – we’re going to go ballistic, I think, from the second half of 2024 leading into 2025. And then we really need to get serious about where we start to take profits.”
Speaking before Friday’s move higher, Pizzino said it looked like Bitcoin was “trying to find a base here somewhere around the mid-to-high $30,000s,” and warned that, “If you see any rejections from roughly $41,000 or $44,000 that could be further downside.”
Regardless of whether BTC corrects lower or holds $38,500 as the near-term low, Pizzino said that Bitcoin could trade sideways until March, as the previous 20%+ corrections during this cycle lasted an average of 60 days compared to the current correction, which is 12 days old.
“That is why, if this is the final correction, if that is the lowest point that Bitcoin goes, $38,500, we may still need a little more time at these levels to catch up, play out something similar that’s happened [the two prior corrections],” he said. “That would then line us up to somewhere in around March just before the halving and potentially we see the market rise from there.”
As for Friday’s move higher, market analyst Rekt Captial said Bitcoin needs to hold above $41,300 at the weekly candle close for the move to hold more significance.
“Great recovery as anticipated, but Bitcoin needs to Weekly Close above the $41300 Range Low to rescue the range,” he said. “Nothing concrete just yet, as this could technically be a brief upside deviation back inside the range. Interesting weekend ahead.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: X
