Bitcoin (BTC) has blown away the expectations of even the staunchest cryptocurrency supporters as the top crypto surged above $61,000 in early trading on Wednesday, hitting its highest price since November 16, 2021, and now trading just 12% below its all-time high.
Data provided by TradingView shows that since Saturday, Bitcoin has recorded five positive daily candles, with Wednesday’s surge being the biggest as the top crypto rallied from $56,590 to a high of $61,430 at the time of writing, an increase of 8.3% on the 1-day chart.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
The building momentum was reflected early on in the futures market, as “March Bitcoin futures prices were again solidly higher and hit a contract and two-year high in early U.S. trading Wednesday,” according to Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.
Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Kitco
“This week’s price action has seen a bullish upside ‘breakout’ from the recent pause,” Wyckoff said. “The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh power this week – to suggest still more upside.”
Andy Baehr, Head of Product at CoinDesk Indices, told Kitco Crypto that the recent surge was anticipated by the CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Indicator, which “has been signaling a significant uptrend for the past 27 days.”
“The success of the ETF launches in the United States has been met with robust demand from other regions, especially Asia,” Baehr noted when asked about the driving force behind the rally. “Over the last week, the price of Bitcoin had consolidated between $50k-$52k, so the recent breakout to current levels is a renewed sign of strength.”
Bitcoin bulls are now looking to achieve a first for the top crypto: reaching a new all-time high before the halving.
“Historically, the price of Bitcoin has been strong around halving events as the market anticipates supply constraints with reduced miner rewards,” Baehr said. “The Bitcoin market is very different from what it was at the last halving four years ago, so anything is possible.”
Ethereum (ETH) has also recorded five straight positive daily candles, indicating interest in the second-ranked crypto by market cap and the top smart contract platform continues to build, thanks in part to speculation around the potential approval of the first spot ETH ETF.
ETH/USD Chart by TradingView
“ETH has caught ETF fever,” Baehr said. “Its persistent strength over the past several weeks is in line with growing expectations that the SEC may approve spot Ether ETFs as early as May.”
“Everyone loves a good sequel,” he added, referring to the fact that Ether is seeing a similar run-up in price as Bitcoin did prior to the approval of the first spot BTC ETFs. “And the investment case for Ether is one that many investors and advisors could find captivating.”
While speaking with Yahoo Finance on Tuesday, Ryan Rasmussen, Senior Crypto Research Analyst at Bitwise, said the firm sees Bitcoin hitting a price of $88,000 by the end of 2024.
"There's a lot of forces at work here in the crypto market,” Rasmussen said. “For the case of Bitcoin, we're seeing two things at play – there's a lot of excitement around the halving, we're certainly seeing futures trading taking those positions going into April around where they think the price is going to move. We think they're positioned bullishly,"
"For Ethereum, it's speculation onEethereum spot ETFs,” he added. “There's a lot of excitement around a new upgrade coming to the Ethereum network in March, it's called Dencun... that should lower the cost to transact on Ethereum."
“We saw Bitcoin ETFs become a buy the rumor and buy the event situation,” Rasmussen noted. “And so I'm not surprised that we're seeing Ethereum catch a similar bid here heading into the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in May.”
He highlighted that there has now been “more than $15 billion of assets flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs,” which is “all buying pressure on the underlying spot asset.”
“When we have that kind of demand shock coming into the market, I think it's no surprise we've seen the price of Bitcoin rise following the launch of those ETFs,” he said. “And I think it would be the same for Ethereum or other assets. If there were ETFs to come to market, you have the demand coming from those sidelined investors.”
“And with all that sidelined capital, I think we're still in the early innings of crypto reaching its kind of point in the adoption curve where we have everyday investors, institutional investors, and retail investors all allocating to these products,” Rasmussen said. “And ETFs are just one of those really great vehicles that help bring those investors to market and help create a highway for them to allocate to not just Bitcoin, but Ethereum, Solana, and other assets as they eventually make their way into the ETF format.”
As the conversation came to a close, Rasmussen said it is the view of Bitwise that “Bitcoin will certainly set all-time highs in 2024.”
“That previous price is right around $69,000, but we don’t think it's going to stop there, we think we’ll at least see a 10% to 15% bump over the last all-time highs in 2024,” he said. “That will take us to the mid $80,000 range so I think our target was $88,00 by 2024, and I’m still sticking by that.”
