Gold price firmer as marketplace awaits FOMC meeting

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are slightly higher and silver near steady in early U.S. trading Monday. The marketplace is quieter to start the trading week, just ahead of major central bank activity. This week. April gold was last up $2.50 at $2,164.00. May silver was last down $0.001 at $25.38.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed to higher when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in policy is expected, but as always the marketplace will parse the statement and Powell’s presser for clues on the future path and timing of monetary policy.

In overnight news, economic data out of China was a mixed bag. January-February industrial output rose 7%, year-over-year, which is the fastest growth in two years. Retail sales in the same period were up 5.5%, down from 7.4% growth in the December period.

The Eurozone February consumer price index was reported up 2.6%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.31%.

U.S. economic reports due out Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

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Technically, the gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. A bullish pennant pattern has also formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at $2,250.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,100.00. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $2,176.90 and then at $2,185.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,149.20 and then at $2,140.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

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The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices hit a three-month high Friday. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing May futures prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $26.575. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $25.66 and then at $26.00. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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