(Kitco News) – It was a volatile day of trading across all financial markets as investors worked to make sense of what the latest inflation data means for interest rates amid a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, which just yesterday released new dot plots showing there will likely only be one interest rate cut in 2024.
Thursday saw the release of May’s producer price index, which showed prices dropped 0.2% month-over-month after rising 0.5% in April. This was the latest sign that inflation is easing, providing more cause for market watchers to anticipate a rate cut in September.
The CME FedWatch Tool now puts the odds of such a cut at 68.5%, up from 65% yesterday.
Stocks started the day higher, sank lower near midday, and climbed into the close. At the closing bell, the S&P and Nasdaq finished higher, recording gains of 0.23% and 0.34%, though they failed to recapture the record highs established in earlier trading sessions. The Dow finished down 0.17%.
Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls attempted to push higher in early trading, but were rejected by bears at $68,484, who then took over the price action and dropped King Crypto to a low of $66,206 in the afternoon.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $66,608, a decrease of 2.2% on the 24-hour chart.
$100,000 Bitcoin is only a matter of time
Despite the stretch of sideways trading that has dominated Bitcoin’s price action since late February, many analysts say that it’s only a matter of time before the uptrend resumes, with most predicting Bitcoin will finally surpass $100,000 at some point in this bull cycle before all is said and done.
“Theoretically, by the end of this year, we should be close to $100,000, maybe $90,000 in terms of the trend line,” said analyst and mathematician Fred Krüeger. “But we could go two standard deviations above those levels in Bitcoin. That would take us to roughly $200,000 this year, or even exceptionally $400,000.”
“If we go one more year and look at 2025, we could be on the $140,000 trend line,” he added. “And if we get one or two standard deviations above that, we could get to $600,000, that would be a big move.”
Krüeger said he thinks “we could really see a high around $500,000 to $600,000 this cycle.”
“I think it's unlikely we'll go down very much from here in the next two years,” he added. “And I think it's quite likely that we'll at least double that in the next two years. Remember, these predictions are based on the model. And it's just a guess.”
Slightly less bullish on the market top for the cycle is market analyst CryptoCon, who has a “level 3” price target of $91,539 and a cycle top target of $123,832, though he notes that the cycle top target is increasing.
$91,539 target left untouched and unchanged for #Bitcoin.
Taking some time to reach it at Level 3 of the Magic bands but it's the next step.
All in due time... pic.twitter.com/Pwimj05ZQb— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) June 12, 2024
For those lamenting the stagnant price action and thinking Bitcoin should be in up-only mode until the cycle top, market analyst Rekt Capital provided some historical insight as to why the sideways price action is actually a good thing.
“The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to breakout is beneficial for the overall cycle,” he tweeted. “Bitcoin has never broken out this early in the Post-Halving period. If it did, the cycle would be accelerated to such a point that the Bull Market would simply be shorter than usual.”
“This continued consolidation is enabling price to resynchronise with historical Halving cycles so that we can get a normal, usual Bull Run,” Rekt Capital said. “Bitcoin has been consolidating inside this ReAccumulation Range for three months now. And history suggests this could still go on for three months more. It shouldn't be surprising, therefore, if price rejects from the Range High Resistance.”
And according to crypto investor Quinten, the current weakness is really a bear trap, and soon, the exponential phase of the bull market will begin.
#Bitcoin $BTC pic.twitter.com/lpagZMRENf
— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) June 13, 2024
“Bitcoin will retrace deep enough to convince you that the Bull Market is over. And then it will resume its uptrend,” Rekt Capital said.
Altcoins hammered
It was a sea of red in the altcoin market as most tokens in the top 200 recorded losses on Thursday, with only a handful eking out minimal gains.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Aelf (ELF) led the small contingent of gainers with an increase of 7%, followed by a 6.5% increase for SKALE (SKL), and a 4.1% gain for Toncoin (TON). Wednesday's top gainer Io.net (IO) was the biggest loser on Thursday, falling 19.1%, while CurveDAO Token (CRV) was a close second with a decline of 19%, and Arweave (AR) lost 13.4%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.42 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 54.2%.
