(Kitco News) — Markets experienced a relatively smooth, if uneventful, day of trading on Friday. Equity indexes finished nearly flat on the session despite some intraday volatility, while Bitcoin and altcoins continued their sideways consolidation pattern.
The S&P 500 spent most of the day fairly deep in negative territory but managed to climb back by the close to finish down only 0.16% on the session. The story was pretty much the opposite for the Dow, but the result was similar, as it traded well in the green throughout the session but finished up only 0.04%, essentially flat on the day.
The Nasdaq mirrored the S&P's performance, with only a brief midday stretch in positive territory before closing down 0.18%.
Bitcoin churns sideways
Bitcoin continued to trade sideways on Friday as traders and analysts tried to figure out when King Crypto would break out of its medium-term consolidation pattern.
BTC opened at $64,858.97 and spent virtually the entire overnight session trading in a narrow range between $64,300 and $65,017. After multiple attempts to break through resistance in the $64,700 area, it finally broke down shortly before 4 am EDT, setting a mid-session low of $63,529.84 just after 5 am.
More sideways chop ensued before Bitcoin set the session low of $63,353.50 just before 10 am EDT. From there, Bitcoin managed a run-up to $64,300 shortly before 11 am, but after a double top at that level, it quickly fell all the way back below $64k by noon.
Then, after testing the $63,400 support level a couple of times in the early afternoon, it began a steady ascent that saw it top out just below $64,350 shortly after the 4 pm equity close.
Bitcoin remains near the middle of its daily range at the time of writing, last trading at $64,320 for a loss of 0.80% on the 24-hour chart.
Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation breaks down
Analysts at Secure Digital Markets were looking at the relationship between tech stocks and BTC on Friday.
“Bitcoin has recently diverged from the Nasdaq's upward momentum, primarily influenced by long-term holders and miners liquidating their positions,” they wrote. “Additionally, growing concerns about the stagnant nature of ETF inflows have contributed to this decoupling. The German government's movement of BTC worth $425 million, presumably for sale, has further pressured the market.”
They noted that the subdued price action has contributed to negative market sentiment for four consecutive weeks. “[S]ome traders anticipate Bitcoin could reach the $60,000 mark soon, while maintaining a bullish long-term outlook,” they wrote.
Turning to the crypto options market, the analysts said that traders are strategically positioning themselves against BTC's price downtrend. “Deribit has seen significant activity in call options, particularly those expiring in June at strike prices of $65,000, $68,000, and $70,000, a July expiry call at $110,000, and a December expiry call at $95,000,” they said.
They also noted continued declines for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, “with outflows totaling $139.9 million, adding to the $900 million already withdrawn this week.”
Breakout or breakdown?
Crypto market experts are poring over the charts in an attempt to determine when the Bitcoin breakout, or breakdown, might happen.
“There is only so much more we can compress here on $BTC,” wrote analyst CrediBULLCrypto in an X post. “If this is indeed our bottom, we should see a breakout within 24-48 hours max.”
Adjusted the "key zone" to newly formed local supply,” he said, sharing the following chart.
“A breakdown from here and we will find ourselves in the "dream long" zone, the most probabilistic place for a full on reversal to form if we manage to get there,” he wrote.
“The charts look extremely similar to those in 2017,” trader and investor Mister Crypto wrote. “This suggests a big Bitcoin move and an alt season are inevitable, but patience is key.”
“Bitcoin season seems very close to bottoming out,” he said in a later post.
“Altcoin season will start next.”
But analyst RektCapital struck a cautious note on Friday morning, saying that BTC could see further downside in the near term.
“Strong rejection from this Lower High resistance yesterday to precede extra downside today,” he wrote. “Bitcoin isn't ready to end its June downtrend just yet.”
“But this is still the downtrend line to watch for a break once Bitcoin is ready to reverse to the upside,” he said.
Altcoins follow BTC sideways
The altcoin market saw another day of relatively low volatility as traders waited for Bitcoin to make up its mind on a definitive direction.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Fellaz (FLZ) led the gainers with an increase of 11.10% on the 24-hour chart and was the only coin in the top 100 to post a double-digit gain on the day, followed by Ordinals (ORDI) which gained 3.14%, and Ethereum Name Service (ENS), which rose 2.98%.
dogwifhat (WIF) led the losers with a decline of -9.97%, followed by a -7.82% drop for zkSync (ZK) and a fall of -5.87% for Based Brett (BRETT).
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.34 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 53.94%, a decrease of 0.23% on the day.
