(Kitco News) - Gold prices are trading solidly higher at midday Tuesday and poised to close at record-high closes in both cash and futures. Technical buying and ideas of U.S. interest rate cuts on the horizon are fueling the precious metals bulls at present. Bulls have momentum on their side and see more gains coming in the near term. August gold was last up $36.20 at $2,464.80. September silver was up $0.539 at $31.47.
Today’s U.S. retail sales report for June came in just mildly above market expectations, but was by no means considered “hot.” Recent U.S. economic data has mostly fallen into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve lower interest rates sooner rather than later. The marketplace is putting better than 50-50 odds of an interest rate cut this fall.
U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes are not far below their record highs. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Rate-cut optimism is lifting markets.”
This week marks the start of China’s Central Committee third plenum, a four-day meeting of the Communist Party leadership to discuss long term economic reforms. The plenum occurs once every five years.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently 4.191%.
Technically, August gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract intra-day high of $2,477.00 scored in May. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,375.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,470.20 and then at $2,477.00. First support is seen at $2,450.00 and then at today’s low of $2,424.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.
September silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $31.635 and then at the July high of $32.015. Next support is seen at $31.00 and then at today’s low of $30.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)
