(Kitco News) – Bitcoin (BTC) bulls made a run at higher resistance levels overnight, but their advance was halted by bears at $61,460, who then turned up the pressure and smacked King Crypto back below $60,000.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
Data provided by TradingView shows that BTCs rally stopped just short of its 50-day moving average, which has been a challenging resistance level to overcome since Bitcoin fell below it on August 2.
Multiple analysts agree that in order for Bitcoin to confirm a bullish trend, it needs to close above the 200-day moving average, which currently sits near $62,500.
“The cryptocurrency market is once again testing the important $2.15 trillion milestone, adding almost 4% in the last 24 hours,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. “Selling pressure has been building near this level since early August. Now, thanks to the impressive recovery in stock indices, cryptocurrency buyers may feel more confident.”
“Bitcoin, having added 3.2% since the start of the day and around 4.5% in 24 hours, has once again come close to testing its 50-day moving average, trading just below $61.0K,” he added. “Overcoming this resistance, from where Bitcoin has been selling off since 9 August, would take it to a test of its 200-day MA near $62.7K. A consolidation above these levels could dramatically improve sentiment in the entire cryptocurrency market and inspire more active buying.”
According to John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of Ledn, the chop seen in recent weeks has done little to change the overall picture for Bitcoin.
“Despite the volatile price action that we’ve seen over the past week, the technical picture remains unchanged,” he said in a note shared with Kitco Crypto. “We continue to be in the completion of wave (4)/beginning of wave(5) (yellow line) of the larger Wave III (orange line).”
“The continuation pattern (blue flag pattern) increases confidence in the wave count and I expect that we will break to new highs in the early fall to complete Wave III,” Glover said.
“The key support level continues to be $49k,” he added. “A break of that level would require a rethink of the wave count, but this is, in my opinion, a low probability event.”
And TradingView analyst TradingShot provided a macro picture of where Bitcoin is at in the bull market cycle, noting that “BTC managed to trade an entire year rising within this green Arc pattern and always below the Cyclical Pivot trend-line that emerged from the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle.”
“Given that historically the Bull Cycle lasts post-Halving almost the time it lasted from the bottom to the Halving, we should expect its top around December 2025 - January 2026, and if it is on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line, then it could be as high as 400k,” he said.
“However, even on a less optimistic scenario where it lasts 1064 days (152 weeks) from the Bottom (not counting FTX crash), like the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can expect a peak a little over $200,000 on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line,” he added.
“It is important to notice that the 1W RSI is recovering from the overbought volatility correction, indicating that BTC should now resume the long-term bullish trend and make a new all-time high soon,” TradingShot concluded. “Needless to say, the 1W MA50 has to hold, in order to support this bull trend as in all previous Cycles.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $59,112, an increase of 0.80% on the 24-hour chart.
While ‘digital gold’ is struggling to overcome resistance at $61,000, real gold continues to climb to new highs, with spot gold hitting a new record high of $2,529.60 in trading on Tuesday.
“By reviewing the latest #gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that after yesterday's analysis and reaching the key level of $2486, the price was met with strong demand and has since established a new all-time high, reaching $2531!” said TradingView analyst Arman Shaban. “With this recent rise, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) has formed in the $2520 to $2506 range, which I expect to be filled in the short term. The uptrend remains intact, and there are no strong signs of a reversal or decline. The key demand zones to watch are $2506 to $2469 and $2477 to $2486.”
