(Kitco News) – The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is now less than two months away, and the entrance of Vice President Kamala Harris into the race has upended the predictions markets – which previously predicted an easy victory for Donald Trump – and reinvigorated the debate around which political party will be better for cryptocurrencies.
Overall, the consensus has largely leaned towards Trump being more favorable for Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto industry. He has vowed to turn the U.S. into the “crypto capital of the planet” and make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset, but the question on many investors’ minds is: How will BTC perform in a Trump or Harris victory?
Kitco Crypto reached out to experts in the field to get their takes, and similar to the consensus that Trump will be better for the industry as a whole, most see Bitcoin as having a more significant upside, at least initially, if Trump is elected to a second term in office, but long term, BTC is expected to rise regardless of who comes out on top.
“The market's consensus is that a Trump victory would be very positive for Bitcoin and a Harris victory very negative,” said Steven Lubka, Head of Swan Private at Swan Bitcoin. “While I do agree a Trump victory would lead to an immediate Bitcoin rally, the negative expectations of a Harris presidency are highly exaggerated.”
“It is unlikely that Harris will be able to mount the political consensus to take material hostile action against Bitcoin, and her administration will engage in high levels of deficit spending, the only factor truly correlated with Bitcoins long-term performance,” Lubka said. “While I certainly could expect a short-term sell-off on news of a Harris victory, it's unlikely to be a long-term drag on the price of Bitcoin.”
“If Trump wins, the U.S. will have its first pro-Bitcoin, pro-crypto president in history,” said Matteo Pellegrini, Founder and CEO of Orange Pill App. “Combined with rate cuts and Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, this could create the perfect storm for a meteoric rise to $120K before Inauguration Day.”
“On the flip side, a Kamala Harris victory would likely lead to short-term price suppression due to the Democratic Party's anti-crypto stance,” he added. “However, in the long run, President Harris's agenda, which requires significant money printing, will create a massive tailwind for Bitcoin, driving its value much higher during her administration. As for other cryptocurrencies, their trajectory is clear – they are on a path to go to zero against Bitcoin, regardless of political winds.”
According to Oliver Linch, CEO of Bittrex Global, Republicans appear to be more welcoming to the unfolding digital revolution, which means Bitcoin would fare better under a Trump administration.
“The Republican Party has quickly recognized that the fervor for technology and innovation – of which crypto is a key component – presents a golden opportunity to capture the elusive 18-30 voter demographic,” he told Kitco Crypto. “This comes at a time when the digital assets sector is increasingly disillusioned with the current administration’s policies, especially under SEC Chair Gary Gensler, Operation Chokepoint 2.0, and the prevailing regulatory uncertainty in the U.S.”
“While crypto is inherently non-partisan, it has found a perhaps unlikely champion in former President Trump, whose vocal support contrasts sharply with the Democrats’ apparent indifference or even antipathy,” he noted. “The Republican Party has accurately identified the significant amount of enthusiasm for technology and innovation within the crypto sector, and as a result, the crypto community, alongside Silicon Valley, is increasingly aligning with the Republican agenda, a significant shift from previous years.”
But the Democrats have an opening, Linch said, as “With President Biden stepping aside, Vice President Harris has a prime opportunity to reclaim lost ground.”
“Harris, with her deep Californian roots, is intrinsically linked to technology and innovation,” he highlighted. “Although her campaign has sent mixed signals, House Democrats are urging her to distance herself from the anti-crypto elements within her party. Signs indicate she’s contemplating this shift, with engagements with tech moguls like Mark Cuban highlighting her intent to understand the industry better.”
“This proactive approach could pave the way for innovative and constructive regulatory policies, fostering trust and collaboration with major industry players,” Linch speculated. “However, if Harris sticks to Biden’s regulatory playbook, she risks alienating the very community she aims to court. In tightly contested swing states, adopting a pro-crypto stance could prove a decisive campaign strategy.”
While it remains to be seen how Harris will ultimately approach the industry, Linch noted that the real story is the rising prominence crypto now has in the eyes of the voting public as it has become a key election issue for the first time in history.
“The crypto community is playing an unprecedented role in this U.S. election, far surpassing its influence in any prior election, and other countries’ elections this year,” he said. “Vice President Harris needs to seize this moment, embracing the sector with bold, responsible policies.”
“American citizens are being done a double disservice by this administration: a dearth of jobs, innovation, and services; coupled with insufficient protections and regulatory clarity,” he added. “They deserve a leader who understands and champions new technologies – not just for progress, but as a strategic move to secure votes. Not only does the U.S. deserve a President who understands and embraces the new technology; it’s a vote-winner too.”
As for the market implications of a Trump or Harris victory, Linch noted, "The intersection of cryptocurrency innovation and the policy landscape is becoming increasingly significant, with blockchain technology offering bipartisan appeal.”
“On one hand, Democrats might leverage crypto’s potential to enhance financial inclusion, while Republicans might emphasize its alignment with individual empowerment and decentralization,” he explained. “As cryptocurrency becomes more embedded in the financial services sector, political engagement is inevitable, and leaders within the industry will need to align their strategies accordingly.”
“Vice President Harris’s policies could either spur innovation by providing much-needed regulatory clarity or create challenges if they impose excessive restrictions,” he concluded. “The key will be to craft policies that incorporate stakeholder feedback, support technological advancement, and uphold high standards when it comes to market stability and security.”
A bright future regardless of who wins
According to Kimberly Rosales, founder and CEO of ChainMyne, the future of crypto looks bright regardless of who wins the election.
“I pay close attention to Bitcoin, as my company, ChainMyne, focuses on making crypto trading accessible,” Rosales told Kitco Crypto. “With that in mind, I’ve been reflecting on the state of blockchain in the wake of the election results. U.S. political leadership can certainly impact the broader macroeconomic environment, which, in turn, affects investor sentiment toward assets like Bitcoin.”
“A Harris victory would likely indicate a continuation of the Biden administration's policies. This could mean a more cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation, with a focus on tighter oversight in areas like taxation, compliance, and environmental concerns related to mining,” she said. “Many analysts predict that she will enforce regulations that add much-needed structure to the industry.”
“If these regulations are well-crafted, they could bring long-term stability to certain cryptocurrencies,” Rosales suggested. “More structure would likely integrate crypto more deeply into the mainstream economy, attracting institutional investors and increasing overall investment power. Since Bitcoin often thrives when the dollar depreciates – and many analysts expect this under Harris – it’s possible that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented heights.”
“On the other hand, Trump has been more outspoken on crypto, though with a different stance,” she noted. “He has signaled a preference for less regulation, which would attract risk-tolerant investors seeking high-growth opportunities. This could benefit Bitcoin, but the lack of regulation means there’s a higher risk of investments going wrong without safety nets. That said, this risk is part of crypto’s nature.”
“Trump has also favored lower taxes, which could benefit Bitcoin investors if these policies include them,” she added. “However, less regulation could lead to a more volatile economy, which doesn’t necessarily scare Bitcoin investors. Based on this, it’s somewhat more likely for Bitcoin to thrive under Trump.”
Ultimately, Bitcoin will climb higher with either candidate installed as president, Rosales said. “A Harris victory might result in slower, steadier growth due to cautious regulation, while a Trump victory could trigger short-term market euphoria that benefits Bitcoin, albeit with heightened volatility.”
“That being said, I expect Bitcoin prices to spike in either scenario, though the difference may be marginal. In the broader context, cryptocurrencies like Ethereum favor a more regulated environment, while Bitcoin tends to perform better under a more deregulatory approach,” Rosales concluded. “My advice is to maintain a long-term perspective. While political shifts may impact short-term price movements, the true value of Bitcoin lies in its fundamentals and its growing adoption as a global, decentralized asset.”
Forget Bitcoin, hold gold
According to David Materazzi, CEO of Galileo FX, while Bitcoin is getting all the attention from Trump and news providers, the real story is the performance of gold, which has a proven history of holding value during times of economic strife.
“I don’t believe in predictions, and trying to forecast Bitcoin’s future is like guessing the weather months ahead without any real data,” Materazzi said. “The price of Bitcoin isn’t tied to fundamentals: it’s driven by speculation, what people are willing to pay for it today versus tomorrow.”
“Unlike gold, Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value,” he added. “It doesn’t produce anything. It has no earnings or dividends. This is why I believe its value is based entirely on sentiment. Whether Harris or Trump wins, Bitcoin’s price will move simply based on traders' emotions and headlines.”
Regulation in focus
According to Scott Dylan, founder of NexaTech Ventures, the future performance of Bitcoin and crypto will depend on how the next President approaches regulating the industry.
“A Kamala Harris victory could lead to a continuation of the current administration's regulatory approach toward cryptocurrencies,” he warned. “In the short term, this might introduce increased scrutiny and potential regulatory hurdles, causing market uncertainty. We could see Bitcoin experiencing a pullback, possibly dipping toward the $40,000–$50,000 range, as investors react to the evolving landscape.”
“However, regulation isn't inherently negative for the crypto industry,” he noted. “Over time, more measured and transparent regulations could provide the stability needed for institutional investors to enter the space confidently. This scenario might not be immediately bullish, but it could create a more sustainable environment where Bitcoin and blockchain innovations thrive in the long run.”
“Conversely, a Donald Trump victory might usher in a more crypto-friendly environment,” Dylan said. “Given his pro-business stance and interest in establishing the U.S. as a leader in the cryptocurrency space, supportive regulatory policies could boost investor confidence. This may attract institutional support and potentially push Bitcoin toward the upper ranges of previous predictions, such as $125,000 or beyond.”
“The optimism surrounding a supportive administration could act as a catalyst for market growth, accelerating the adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies,” he said.
Dylan also highlighted the forces impacting Bitcoin and cryptos beyond the U.S. presidential election.
“While the presidential election is a significant event, it's crucial to consider other factors influencing Bitcoin's price,” he noted. “Global economic conditions, inflation rates, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions all play pivotal roles. Ongoing concerns about inflation and currency devaluation continue to highlight Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against traditional financial systems.”
“The maturation of the crypto market infrastructure – such as the development of robust exchanges, custodial services, and financial products – contributes to Bitcoin's long-term viability regardless of the political climate,” he added.
“In my view, Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition remains strong, irrespective of who wins the election,” Dylan concluded. “While the paths may differ – a potentially slower climb under stricter regulations or a rapid ascent with supportive policies – the long-term trajectory points toward growth. Investors should be prepared for short-term volatility but focus on the broader macroeconomic trends that drive the crypto market.”
Estimates from analysts
While the analysts interviewed by Kitco Crypto were somewhat hesitant to provide specific price points for Bitcoin following the election of either Harris or Trump, analysts at Bernstein and Standard Chartered were more than happy to provide their predictions.
According to Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, if Trump wins, they expect Bitcoin to reclaim new highs and reach close to the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of Q4.
If, on the other hand, Harris wins, they predicted Bitcoin would lose support at $50,000 and head back to test the $30,000 to $40,000 range, where it traded when the spot BTC ETFs launched.
They explained their reasoning by noting that Trump’s campaign has shown “more warmth” to the crypto industry. “While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign, and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide.”
They argued that while the regulatory scrutiny the industry faced in the wake of the collapse of platforms like FTX and Terra/Luna was justified, the subsequent regulatory actions against major crypto companies like Coinbase and Uniswap have eroded trust and pushed the industry into partisan debates.
Trump has also been clearer on messaging, saying he intends to make the U.S. “the Bitcoin and crypto capital of the world,” while Harris has not addressed crypto in any of her speeches or policy statements, they noted.
They also suggested that a favorable regulatory environment could remove risk barriers for financial institutions to participate, which would help digital assets compete with traditional assets for institutional flows and spurring innovation.
“Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade,” the analysts said.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said that Bitcoin is expected to hit a new high by year-end, regardless of who wins the U.S. election in November.
Kendrick noted that while the election outcome is important for digital assets, it matters less than when Biden was the Democratic candidate and less than markets think.
“Progress on relaxing regulations - particularly the repeal of SAB 121, which imposes stringent accounting rules on banks' digital asset holdings - will continue in 2025 no matter who is in the White House,” Kendrick wrote, adding that progress would just take longer under a Harris presidency.”
Aside from the election, he said a re-steepening of the U.S. Treasury curve is also “building positive momentum” for Bitcoin, pointing to a positive future.
Kendrick suggested that Bitcoin would likely experience an initial sell-off in Harris wins but expects any dip to be bought as investors recognize that regulatory progress will still happen, albeit at a slower pace, while other positive catalysts take over.
While he sees Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by the end of 2024 regardless of who wins the election, the gains would be better with Trump, he said, as Bitcoin could hit $125,000 with that outcome while it would only climb to $75,000 with a Harris victory.
