(Kitco News) – Bitcoin's (BTC) price continued to trade above support at $63,000 on Monday morning as bulls gear up to make a run at $65,000 resistance, which many analysts identify as the key level to overcome to signal a continuation of the bull market.
“The cryptocurrency market paused growth early in the day on Monday after last week's resounding close, stabilizing at $2.23 trillion (+8.8% in 7 days), which is near the previous peak,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. “This means that further gains will be an important second signal for breaking the multi-month trend of lower local highs. Prior to this, we have seen a breaking of the sequence of lower local lows, which was the first signal of a trend change.”
“Bitcoin slipped to $64.4K on Monday morning, stabilizing $1K lower at the time of writing,” he added. “This tug-of-war near the 200-day simple moving average is in its fifth day. Monday saw the biggest move into territory above this curve. Still, traders should keep in mind last month's moves when a strong seller attack came after two days of consolidation above this line, also at roughly the same height.”
“The generally positive mood of the crypto market is indicated by the growing capitalization of the stablecoin market since August, approaching $160bn after three months of fluctuations around $150bn,” Kuptsikevich noted.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
The big story in the crypto market to start the week is Vice President Kamala Harris's first public statement about crypto, which she made during a fundraiser at Cipriani Wall Street in Manhattan, vowing to encourage investment in artificial intelligence and digital assets.
“I will bring together labor, small business founders and innovators, and major companies,” Harris said, as reported by Bloomberg. “We will partner together to invest in America’s competitiveness, to invest in America’s future. We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors.”
“We will create a safe business environment with consistent and transparent rules of the road,” she added. “We will invest in semiconductors, clean energy, and other industries of the future, and we will cut needless bureaucracy.”
The comments are notable as they are the first time Harris has publicly remarked about crypto since she became the Democratic Party’s presidential frontrunner, whereas Donald Trump has voiced his full-throated support for the industry for months.
Her positive remarks suggest that a Harris administration would adopt a different, more positive approach to crypto than President Joe Biden, who some have seen as unfriendly to the sector.
Faryar Shirzad, policy chief at Coinbase, called the statement from Harris “important and constructive” while acknowledging that Trump is decidedly more pro-crypto. “It’s not nearly as forward-leaning as the concrete and visionary positions taken by Donald Trump, but it’s still notable because she recognizes digital asset innovation as being important and on par with AI.”
Tim Kravchunovsky, founder and CEO of Chirp, was less impressed, saying the statement is shallow lip service and lacks any substantive details.
“Over the weekend, Kamala Harris made a speech that briefly mentioned digital assets, and now everyone is beside themselves thinking that she will support crypto innovation,” Kravchunovsky said in a note shared with Kitco Crypto. “But the reality is that we didn’t hear any details from her on how exactly she plans to offer this support. It seems like she says what people want to hear without a concrete plan behind her words.”
“During this administration, the SEC has shown its stance on crypto and unless I hear something concrete from Harris, I will take it as hot air,’ he added. “Plus, in the past, Hillary Clinton, who remains an influential figure within the Democratic party, has expressed that crypto is a threat to the US dollar. So who’s to say that the attitude towards digital assets will change under a Harris presidency?”
“So far, we have heard much more detail from Donald Trump when it comes to specific crypto-related policies, such as creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” Kravchunovsky noted. “I’d like to hear more specifics from the Harris campaign, too. But even if both presidential candidates promise the moon, let’s not forget that it’s politics. There’s no guarantee either of them will truly deliver on their promises.”
While the debate around which Presidential candidate will be better for crypto rages, TradingView analyst TradingShot says that all that really matters for Bitcoin is that an election takes place.
“Trump or Harris?? For BITCOIN, the elections only need to happen!” TradingShot titled his latest update. “Simplistic title over a matter as complicated and important as the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections this November, but completely true in terms of pragmatism.”
“As this straightforward 1W chart shows, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't just bulletproof when it comes to the elections, but in fact, it gains extreme buying momentum irrespectively of the winner (Democrat or Republican),” he noted.
“Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 – all those elections had in common the enormous Parabolic Rally that was initiated exactly after the result,” TradingShot highlighted. “That was, on all Cycles, the most aggressive phase, clearly showing that investors just need the elections to be over in order to buy risky assets confidently without this macro event in the way. Usually, this comes with fresh presidential assurances that the 'market remains strong and we will do everything to keep it this way,' etc, so it makes sense.”
Elections also help provide a timeframe for traders to maximize their profits ahead of the next crypto winter, he noted.
“What is equally interesting is that Bitcoin tends to top roughly a year after the elections,” TradingShot said. “November 06, 2021 = Bitcoin topped 385 days later; November 08, 2016 = Bitcoin topped 399 days later; November 03, 2020 = Bitcoin topped 371 days later.”
“This model indicates that even if we can't estimate accurately BTC's top in terms of price, we can time it,” he emphasized. “And based on the November 05, 2024 elections, historically, the minimum time it could take for BTC to reach a new Cycle top would be 371 days, giving us a rough date around the week of November 10 2025!”
For now, the countdown to the election is on, and discussions around which candidate will be better for digital assets is likely to dominate the conversation around crypto and politics until the winner is known.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,223, an increase of 0.85% on the 24-hour chart.
