(Kitco News) – Markets finished the last day of the third quarter on a down note, with stocks, cryptos, and precious metals all recording losses on Monday.
In the absence of significant data releases, market watchers were focused on Fed chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the National Association for Business Economics this afternoon. This was Powell’s first live event since the central bank’s monetary policy meeting two weeks ago, and while he didn’t say anything surprising, markets declined while he spoke, with gold and Bitcoin hitting session lows.
As of Monday afternoon, the CME FedWatch Tool shows the likelihood of a 25 bps cut stands at 65%, with the odds of another 50 bps cut at 35%.
At the closing bell, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished in the red, down 0.14%, 0.36%, and 0.24%, respectively. At the time of writing, spot gold trades at $2,632.40/oz for a decline of 0.98% on the session, after hitting a low of $2,624.78 while Powell spoke.
Data provided by TradingView shows that after peaking close to $66,400 late Friday evening, Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to maintain its upward momentum, and after one final attempt to hold above the $66,000 level on Sunday afternoon, King Crypto saw a sharp selloff which continued throughout Monday’s trading session, with bears swatting BTC to a session low under $64k shortly after 2:30 pm EDT.
Bitcoin has since staged a modest recovery to trade at $63,629.65 but remains down 3.08% on the daily chart.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
Bitcoin poised for rebound
Analysts at Secure Digital Markets noted that Bitcoin has found strong support at the 63k level despite the sharp pullback.
“This price action highlights the market’s resilience and the likelihood of continued upward momentum,” they said.
The analysts pointed to key employment data this week, with the JOLTS report set for release on Tuesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls report for September on Friday morning. “Strong labor market data would signal that the economy remains robust, easing concerns about a potential recession,” they said. “On the other hand, weaker data could shift sentiment, raising questions about whether rate cuts are driven by economic weakness rather than just the easing of inflationary pressures, which could introduce more uncertainty for investors.
They also noted significant inflows into U.S.-listed crypto ETFs. “Bitcoin-focused ETFs drew in an impressive $494.4 million, with ARK leading the charge with $203.1 million in inflows for the second day in a row,” they wrote. “Ethereum ETFs also saw notable activity, bringing in $58.7 million, largely driven by Fidelity’s $42.5 million inflows.”
The analysts said that Bitcoin is well-positioned to finish September with a 9% gain, “bucking the trend of historically negative returns for the month, which has only seen positive performance twice since 2013.”
“As we look ahead, October has traditionally been a favorable month for Bitcoin, showing just two negative months in the past decade,” they noted. “With the current macro environment characterized by a more dovish monetary policy, increased institutional inflows, and bipartisan support for cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S., the stage seems set for a continued rally, potentially pushing BTC toward its previous highs near $70,000.”
“Bitcoin did follow the plan,” said Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MN Trading in an X post. “Took the liquidity above the recent highs, and is coming back down.”
“I think we're in a new uptrend, which means that dips are for buying,” he added. “In that sense, if we get a retest at $60.5-61.3K, I'm interested before we test the ATH."
Altcoins sail through sea of red
It was a negative start to the week for altcoins as the overwhelming majority of tokens in the top 200 recorded losses.
Bonk (BONK) led the field with an increase of 6.92%, followed by a gain of 4.41% for dogwifhat (WIF), and a 3.21% increase for Beam (BEAMX). Aragon (ANT) was the biggest loser, falling -32.27%, while FTX Token (FTT) lost -16.90%, and Metaplex (MPLX) declined by -12.53%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.24 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 56.02%.
