(Kitco News) – Bitcoin (BTC) just experienced its best September on record – but there’s little time to celebrate as bears look to spoil the ‘Uptober’ everyone is expecting and have dialed up the pressure on Tuesday morning, swatting BTC back below $63,000.
“The cryptocurrency market starts the week on the defensive, losing 1.2% of its capitalization in 24 hours to $2.27 trillion, although it is still up 3% from a week ago,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. “This drawdown looks like short-term profit-taking from the recent wave of gains amid the risks of the upcoming jobs report and Powell’s comments.”
“On the technical side, Bitcoin has come under pressure near the upper border of a multi-month downtrend,” he added. “However, we see this as having more of an emotional component, as we believe that the break above the previous highs and the 200-day moving average served as an important signal of bullish dominance.”
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
“Bitcoin is on the verge of its best September since 2012,” Kuptsikevich highlighted. “BTC has gained more than 11% since the beginning of the month, in stark contrast to the typical decline this month. The altcoin index is up more than 20% after easing financial conditions amid a global wave of interest rate cuts by the Fed, ECB and PBC.”
Bitcoin just closed the month UP 7.3%
The biggest September gain in 11 years. pic.twitter.com/4953Z4Z3rL— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 1, 2024
According to analysts at Bitfinex, Bitcoin’s recent price action is the most bullish it has been since King Crypto rallied to a new record high in March.
“Bitcoin has surged by 26.2 percent since the September 6th low of $52756, in doing so breaching the $65,000 mark and exceeding the previous local top recorded on August 25th,” they wrote. “This upward move marks Bitcoin's first major break above a local top since March 2024. The timing aligns with the start of October, historically the month with the highest median price increase for Bitcoin, with a median return of 27.7 percent and an average return of 22.9 percent.”
“These strong historical trends, along with the upcoming Q4, which also typically sees the highest average quarterly returns, have bolstered optimism for further gains,” they added. “However, while Bitcoin has reclaimed key on-chain levels such as the Short-Term Holder Realised Price (currently $62,750), there are warning signs. Spot market buying, which had been aggressive since the September 6th local bottom, has recently flattened, suggesting that the market may be reaching a temporary equilibrium.”
“Additionally, BTC open interest (OI) has surged, exceeding $35 billion, a level that has historically correlated with local price peaks,” they warned. “This raises concerns of potential market overheating, although a modest 5-10 percent pullback could reset OI without disrupting the overall uptrend.”
Bitfinex analysts also highlighted that the current price action for BTC largely mirrors what was seen in 2020, and if it keeps up, the market could see a new all-time high before the end of 2024.
“As we head into the next quarter, it is also important to note that BTC currently remains trading in a very large consolidation range between $50,000 and $68,000,” they said. “This is very reminiscent of the way previous halving years have performed, and in particular 2020.”
“As can be seen above, in 2020, BTC exhibited extensive ranging/downtrending behavior for about 200-250 days before commencing an uptrend in October,” they highlighted. “This rally resulted in a substantial price increase, with BTC moving from $11,000 in October 2020, to peak at $64,829 in April 2021.”
“Drawing on these multiple historical patterns, if the seasonal trends hold true once again, we might expect Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high towards the end of Q4 2024 or into Q1 2025,” the analysts said. “This projection is contingent on similar market dynamics and investor sentiment occurring that has historically accompanied post-halving cycles.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $62,285, a decrease of 2.35% on the 24-hour chart.
