(Kitco News) – Volatility spiked across financial markets on Friday after the September jobs report blew away expectations, but the day ended on a positive note for most assets as traders breathed a sigh of relief at the end of the dock worker strike in the U.S. and an uneventful end to the week regarding the conflict in the Middle East.
“Risk assets saw a robust rally this morning following the release of surprisingly strong jobs data,” noted analysts at Secure Digital Markets. “The nonfarm payroll report showed a notable increase of 254,000 jobs in September, significantly surpassing the anticipated 147,000. This led to a reduction in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, better than the expected steady rate of 4.2%.”
“Such figures underscore the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy, bolstered by a vigorous labor market,” they added. “Despite this, Bitcoin prices have notably declined from their positions a week ago, suffering from the ramifications of a market perceived as overbought and recent negative macroeconomic news, including heightened tensions in the Middle East.”
The jobs report tempered expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November, but Wall Street still sees multiple cuts coming before the end of 2024.
“The futures markets have adjusted sharply post-report, with traders now heavily betting on back-to-back quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed in the upcoming November and December meetings,” Secure Digital Markets analysts said. The CME FedWatch tool shows expectations for a 25 bps cut in November stand at 99%, with a 1% chance that interest rates will go unchanged.
After initially pulling back following the jobs reports, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all surged higher in the afternoon to finish the week on strong footing, closing up 0.90%, 0.81%, and 1.22%, respectively.
“Crude oil prices climbed further on Friday, culminating in a nearly 9% increase for the week,” Secure Digital Markets analysts said. “The uptick in prices is largely due to escalating military actions in the Middle East following Iran's missile strike on Israel.” Crude oil closed Friday up 1.04%, trading at 74.48.
Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off a low of $60,464 overnight, and following a whipsaw after the jobs report was released, climbed higher in the afternoon, spiking above $62,400 near the U.S. market close.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
“Bitcoin has notably outperformed its counterparts, pushing the Bitcoin Dominance index past 58% – a near three-year peak – while the ETHBTC ratio has approached its annual low,” noted Secure Digital Markets analysts. “The sentiment on Polymarket regarding Bitcoin's October trajectory is varied. While prospects of reaching $70,000 have been dismissed, there's a consensus leaning towards a price consolidation within the $57.5K to $65K range.”
“In the realm of US-listed crypto ETFs, BTC experienced further net outflows totaling $54.2 million, led by ARK's $58 million in withdrawals—marking its fourth straight session of net outflows,” they added. “Meanwhile, ETH saw outflows of $3.2 million, reflecting a subdued risk appetite for the world's second-largest cryptocurrency.”
Gold was the one notably red asset on Friday after holding up better than other asset classes amid the conflict-inspired volatility for the week. At the time of writing, spot gold trades at $2,650.90/oz, a decline of 0.17% on the 24-hour chart.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, trades at $62,440 for an increase of 2.78% on the 24-hour chart.
Bullish sentiment rising
A survey of analysts on X shows a decidedly bullish bent for Bitcoin’s forward outlook.
Market analyst Ash Crypto noted a bullish breakout above a falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart and is looking for Bitcoin to climb to $64,800.
Bitcoin has broken out from the bullish
falling wedge in the 4hr time frame.
Lets pray for BTC to break $64,300
and hold above it.
We still have 27 days left in Uptober. pic.twitter.com/yQTNlVaZYF— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) October 4, 2024
Bitcoin Archive highlighted the appearance of higher lows on the chart, breaking the trend of lower lows, which he said is setting the stage for Bitcoin to “rip higher.”
Bitcoin setting up a a base to rip higher.
Q4 is gonna be ??? pic.twitter.com/8Oatv6AVl8— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 4, 2024
And TradingView analyst TradingShot highlighted the formation of a bullish cup and handle on the Bitcoin chart, which suggests an imminent move higher.
“Bitcoin's full Cycle since the November 2021 High can be illustrated as nothing more than a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern, with the Channel Down since March 2024 being the Handle of the formation,” he wrote.
“Simple yet a technical reality, the Handle found support both in early August and September on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), keeping the bullish trend valid,” he noted. “In fact, the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1W MA50 have been the bottom formation zone during its previous 6-month consolidation in August - September 2023.”
“All Bullish Legs since the November 2022 bottom have been within +90% and +100%,” TradingShot observed. “Even if the minimum (+91.68%) of the last rally is followed, we can expect Bitcoin to reach at least $94000 during that run by the end of the year.”
A green field of altcoins
Altcoins were a sea of green to finish the work week, with all but one non-stablecoin in the top 200 recording gains on Friday.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Chia (XCH) was the top gainer, enjoying a 26.6% rally, followed by gains of 20.1% and 18.2% for Popcat (POPCAT) and FTX Token (FTT), respectively. The one exception to the pan-rally was Axelar (AXL), which lost 3.5%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.17 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 56.9%.
