(Kitco News) – Bulls emerged across all markets in early trading on Friday as Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $68,000, spot gold hit a new record high above $2,720/oz, and stocks climbed higher after Netflix boosted sentiment with an across-the-board earnings beat.
“Today, stock indices got an early boost from Netflix, which reported solid numbers after the close,” said David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. “The streaming giant beat expectations for both earnings and revenues. On top of this, it reported a 35% increase from the previous quarter in its ad-supported membership tier. The stock was up just under 6% in early trade. Today’s major earnings reports come from American Express and Procter and Gamble.”
“Yesterday’s Retail Sales numbers came in above expectations, leading many economists to upgrade their forecasts for GDP,” he added. “The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for inflation-adjusted GDP growth rose to 3.4% for the third quarter. That is an impressive number when one considers just how loud the calls were at the beginning of this year for a recession in 2024.”
Morrison also highlighted “a notable shift in rate cut expectations for the rest of this year,” saying that while the “probability of a 25 basis point cut in early November has risen to over 90%, doubts are creeping in over the likelihood of a repeat cut in December.”
“The robustness of recent economic data releases, along with the strong earnings season and elevated stock markets have seen the probability of ‘no cut’ in December rise to 21% from zero a month ago,” he said. “The robustness of the US economy has led some commentators to question the wisdom of last month’s bumper 50 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve. The worry is that the Fed may decide to postpone further easing.”
Morrison said that while a “strong economy is a good problem to have, investors may look ahead and decide that a delay in easier monetary conditions could take some heat out of what is by many measures, an expensive stock market.”
As for gold’s ongoing ‘up-only’ rally, he highlighted that today’s breakout “came in the early hours of this morning during the Asian Pacific session,” which “tends to be when liquidity is poor, and markets can move dramatically on relatively low volumes.”
“The big question now is how it closes ahead of the weekend,” he said. “As mentioned previously, the past week has seen gold behave constructively from a bullish perspective. The gentle decline that took place over the two weeks following the previous record high from late September helped to reset the daily MACD at lower levels. This gave gold a good platform to launch its latest advance.”
“Interestingly, gold’s MACD is still significantly lower than it was three weeks ago. That would suggest that it can maintain its upside momentum. But this is not in itself enough to guarantee further gains,” Morrison noted. “It seems reasonable to expect prices to back up and fill in to provide another base from which gold can rally.”
“Of course, there’s always the danger that a more protracted and deep sell-off develops, so traders should be more mindful than ever of the potential downsides,” he added. “Meanwhile, silver is making a valiant effort to keep up. But it is still struggling to establish itself above $32 per ounce.”
Crypto bulls also joined the rally party on Friday and look to finally flip Bitcoin’s resistance at $68,000 into support in their quest to reach a new all-time high before the end of 2024.
“The crypto market has gained around 8% over the past seven days, stabilising near $2.30 trillion over this week and reaching a capitalisation of $2.32 trillion at the time of writing on Friday,” wrote Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. “The sentiment index is firmly in greed territory at 73. This is the highest level of optimism since late July and contrasts sharply with fear (32) a week earlier.”
“Bitcoin has gained over 12% in the last week, making two attempts to break through the $68 thousand level,” he added. “In our view, the bulls in Bitcoin already showed their strength on Monday, as they took the price above the 200-day MA in one fell swoop, breaking through the previous highs and the upper boundary of the multi-month descending channel.”
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
“The next growth target looks to be the $71-73K area, where strong resistance and historical highs from March are concentrated,” Kuptsikevich said.
According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, bulls are likely to succeed in hitting a new all-time high before the end of the year, and 2025 is shaping up to be a strong year for the crypto market in general.
“I think it’s going to be a new all-time high. I think it’s going to be six-figure Bitcoin for sure,” Hougan said in an interview with Altcoin Daily. “And the question is, is it a one-handle or is it a two-handle? When I say for sure, of course, there are no guarantees. It’s a risky market. You should only invest what you can lose. But the setup for 2025 is really exceptional.”
While there are various tailwinds to support his outlook, Hougan highlighted the halving cycle, which has historically led to bullish momentum around six months after the halving takes place.
“This is about the period in Bitcoin’s history where you start to feel the effects of the halving,” he said, adding that he also expects demand for spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “will be bigger” next year. The Fed cutting rates is another bullish factor pushing Bitcoin’s price higher.
“Our view at Bitwise is that crypto will end the year at new all-time highs. It was just a question of when the rally would begin. It’s possible the rally has already begun,” Hougan said. “There is a really significant amount of money on the sidelines.”
According to market analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin is on track to break out of the previously bearish market structure and stands poised to retest resistance at $71,000.
“Bitcoin is really well-positioned for a Weekly Close above the multi-month series of Lower Highs (black),” he said.
“A Weekly Close like this would confirm the end of the downtrend & position BTC to revisit the Range High of the ReAccumulation Range (red).”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,385, an increase of 1.95% on the 24-hour chart.
