(Kitco News) – Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated above $72,000 in early trading on Wednesday, while spot gold spiked to a new record high of $2,790 per ounce after the latest government data showed that the U.S. GDP slowed to an annualized growth rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, down from 3.0% in Q2.
While GDP slowed, the latest jobs data showed that 233,000 jobs were created in the past month, exceeding economists' estimates of 110,000. The data shows that the U.S. economy remains resilient, further complicating the Fed’s decision on interest rates.
That said, the CME FedWatch Tool still puts the odds of a 25 basis point cut in November at 99%, which has kept traders engaged with the markets.
After opening in the red, the major stock indices all climbed into the green following the data releases, while Bitcoin held onto its recent gains and gold climbed higher.
“Gold was trading at a fresh all-time intra-day high this morning, having posted a record close last night. It is closing in on its next key upside target of $2,800, having broken above $2,700 less than a fortnight ago,” said David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. “The chart continues to look constructive from a bullish perspective. The daily MACD indicates that momentum remains to the upside, while below the overbought levels seen at the end of September.”
“Having said that, it looks as if there’s less room overhead when compared to mid-October. The moving averages are all stacked up in bullish fashion, with the 50-day below the 20-day, and the 100-day comfortably below both,” he noted. “The last time the three converged was in mid-February, just before the start of this leg of the rally when gold was trading below $2,000 per ounce.”
“So, it all looks tickety-boo for the bulls, and that means also it’s time to be extremely cautious,” Morrison warned. “The silver chart is very messy in comparison. From a bullish perspective, the longer that prices hold above $34 per ounce, the better. But the market has yet to take off dramatically which is a feature of a full-blown silver bull market.”
As for Bitcoin, the bullish moves higher on Monday and Tuesday were met with a period of consolidation on Wednesday. This was actually a welcomed sight for experienced crypto traders who know that the times when BTC goes up only are often followed by significant pullbacks, so a break in the rally is a positive sign for future growth.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
“Bitcoin came within a hair's breadth of an all-time high on Tuesday night, but the overall crypto market is well off its peak,” noted Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Total cryptocurrency capitalization at the overnight peak was $2.46 trillion, down $2.48 trillion from the July peak, almost 12% below the March high of $2.77 trillion and around $400 billion below the all-time high reached in November 2021.”
“While the big picture points to a series of lower peaks, the medium-term uptrend since early September still suggests that new highs are a matter of months away,” he said. “And the acceleration we saw last week suggests it's a matter of weeks, not months.”
“Bitcoin has been the main driver, gaining momentum since Saturday,” Kuptsikevich highlighted. “Trading near $72.4K, Bitcoin does not appear to be extremely overheated, leaving room for further strength. The market seems to be pricing in Trump's victory and the easing of regulations on cryptocurrencies.”
“The euphoria is particularly evident in DOGE, which has gained another 6% in one day, 24% in seven days and over 41% in the last 30 days,” he added. “The coin has no direct benefit from Trump's rise to power, but speculators are warming to it because of frequent mentions of Musk, who may get a position in Trump's government.”
According to TradingView analyst TradingShot, the recent surge higher from Bitcoin is a signal that the next phase of the bull market is underway.
“Bitcoin is illustrated here on the 1W time-frame from the 2011 Cycle until today,” he said in a Wednesday update. “We've used the Gaussian Channel (GC) for a long time, and the reason is simple. Since the August 05, 2024, low, it has been supporting the uptrend up to today's test of the All-Time High (ATH).”
“This continuous support is a critical feature moving forward as every time the GC held at this stage of the previous Cycles (October 2020, 2016, and 2012), BTC started its final (and most aggressive) parabolic rally of the cycle,” he said.
“What's equally interesting is that during those stages, the price also re-tested and held the former Resistance (of the previous Higher High), turned it into a Support (while the GC held), and bounced to the Parabolic Rally,” he added. “This is a remarkably consistent feature taking place every 4 years!”
TradingShot said the main takeaway from the Gaussian Channel analysis “is that the green part of the GC has lasted in the previous Cycles 123, 144 and 148 weeks respectively, which translates to 861, 1008 and 1036 days, until it turned red.”
“As a result, we can expect the current green phase to last until December 08, 2025 (minimum) and June 01, 2026 (maximum),” he noted. “It is more reasonable to expect the longer case as the recent Cycles tend to have stabilized most of their common time patterns.”
“The Bear Cycle tends to start when a 1W candle is closed below the GC,” TradinShot said. “Until then, based on the parallel Channel Up patterns that encompass 3 Cycles each time, we can even expect a price as high as $200000 for this Cycle Top.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $72,022, an increase of 0.14% on the 24-hour chart.
