- Trump wins Michigan, completes Blue Wall sweep
- Harris to concede at 4 p.m. from Howard University
- GOP takes Senate majority, House still undecided
- Trump’s legal team moves to delay sentencing
Harris:
- HARRIS WINS 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IN NEBRASKA: AP
- HARRIS WINS HAWAII: AP
- HARRIS WINS VIRGINIA: AP
- HARRIS WINS NEW MEXICO: AP
- HARRIS WINS OREGON: AP
- HARRIS WINS VERMONT: AP
- HARRIS WINS MASSACHUSETTS: AP
- HARRIS WINS DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: NETWORKS
- HARRIS WINS RHODE ISLAND: AP
- HARRIS WINS CONNECTICUT: AP
- HARRIS WINS MARYLAND: AP
- HARRIS WINS NEW JERSEY: AP
- HARRIS WINS DELAWARE: NBC
- HARRIS WINS ILLINOIS: AP
- HARRIS WINS VIRGINIA: AP
- HARRIS WINS NEW YORK: AP
- HARRIS WINS COLORADO: AP
- HARRIS WINS THE 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IN MAINE AND ONE ELECTORAL VOTE: AP
- HARRIS WINS CALIFORNA: AP
- HARRIS WINS WASHINGTON: AP
Trump:
- TRUMP WINS GEORGIA: AP
- TRUMP WINS THE 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IN NEBRASKA AND ONE ELECTORAL VOTE: AP
- TRUMP WINS NORTH CAROLINA: AP
- TRUMP WINS KENTUCKY: AP
- TRUMP WINS INDIANA: AP
- TRUMP WINS WEST VIRGINIA: AP
- TRUMP WINS MISSISSIPPI: AP
- TRUMP WINS ALABAMA: AP
- TRUMP WINS OKLAHOMA: AP
- TRUMP WINS FLORIDA: NETWORKS
- TRUMP WINS SOUTH CAROLINA: AP
- TRUMP WINS TENNESSEE: AP
- TRUMP WINS ARKANSAS: AP
- TRUMP WINS TEXAS: AP
- TRUMP WINS WYOMING: AP
- TRUMP WINS LOUISIANA: AP
- TRUMP WINS SOUTH DAKOTA: AP
- TRUMP WINS NORTH DAKOTA: AP
- TRUMP WINS MISSOURI: AP
- TRUMP WINS UTAH: AP
- TRUMP WINS MONTANA: AP
- TRUMP WINS KANSAS: AP
- TRUMP WINS IOWA: AP
- TRUMP WINS IDAHO: AP
- TRUMP WINS PENNSYLVANIA
- TRUMP WINS WINCONSIN
- TRUMP WINS NEBRASKA
- TRUMP WINS OHIO
Trump projected to win second term, GOP wins control of Senate, leads in House
While the counting of votes in key states continues on Wednesday morning, Donald Trump is projected to have secured 279 electoral college votes to Kamala Harris' 223, and major news organizations have declared Trump the President-Elect.
The Republicans are also projected to have gained three Senate seats, giving them control over the upper house of Congress with a 52-seat majority.
Finally, Republicans have won or are projected to win in 204 congressional districts to the Democrats' 191. The final outcome in the House of Representatives is less certain, as 221 seats are needed to secure a majority, but if the trend holds, the GOP may have swept the 2024 election.
(8:48 am EST)
The next U.S. President looks to face a divided Congress
While Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump continues to have an edge in this the electoral college votes, the focus is now starting to turn to Congress. According to AP Republican's have taken the Senate earning 50 seats; however the House is still up for grabs and and Democrats could have a slight advantage.
According to analysts at Capital Economics a House controlled by Democrats will impact some of Trumps policy plans. However, the British research firm also noted that even if Republicans do control the House, they will have to walk a fine line.
"If the House breaks for the Democrats then Trump's ability to push through additional fiscal stimulus would be sorely constrained. Even if Republicans do hold the House, it will be hard to govern with what could be a majority in the low single digits," the analysts said in a note. "Moreover, as the market reaction makes clear, the bond vigilantes are stirring and the risk of an even bigger adverse reaction could intimidate the Republicans into forsaking another big package of deficit-financed tax cuts."
(12:08 a.m. EST)
Markets are pricing in a Trump win as the trade war trade picks up
While the U.S. presidential race remains tight, one market analyst noted that the Democratic Party is running out of votes in Pennsylvania. This state has become a must-win as Trump continues to lead in the electoral vote count.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that markets are already pricing in a Trump win with the "trade war trade," which is supporting the U.S. dollar.
However, he added that gold, which is trading relatively flat on the day, should continue to perform well under a Trump presidency. As of 11:23 p.m. EST, December gold futures last traded at $2,746.70 an ounce, down 0.11% on the day.
"The market seems to be very much positioned that the ultimate winner tonight, when all the votes are finally counted, will be Trump. If you are a gold person because you think that inflation is a concern, I've got a great set of circumstances for you right now," Vecchio said.
Along with tariffs driving consumer prices higher, Vecchio noted that Trump is likely to increase government spending and expand his 2017 tax cuts, which would lead to higher debt levels. He added that if Trump pressures the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates, that will add further fuel to a potential inflationary fire.
"Gold, it will soon shine again," he said.
(11:40 p.m. EST)
Dollar will weaken and gold will rally with Trump win, if Harris pulls ahead in swing states, USD will recover - Chandler
Kitco News spoke to Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, just before 9:30 pm EST.
"So far I'd say no surprises, but still early," Chandler said. "But what's happened is that in the North American session earlier today on Tuesday, you had what seemed to be an unwinding of the 'Trump trade,' the dollar weakened. And now the dollar is strengthening. It's up about half a big figure against all the major currencies, and it's up a big figure against the yen."
Chandler also noted that yields and stock futures are higher, but this could be misleading. "I would say that's very thin Asian trading, taking advantage of the moves we saw today in North America and buying the dollar on the pullback, which might be exacerbating the price action."
For the dollar, Chandler expects more weakness with a Trump victory, and a USD recovery if Harris pulls ahead.
"I think people see Trump as being good for the dollar, because you have a bigger budget deficit, more government bonds, higher inflation," he said. "People think it means implications for Fed policy. I'm not so convinced it's true, but I just remember, back in July and August, when the dollar was selling off people said it was because Trump and Vance wanted a weaker dollar."
"My best guess is if we see Harris winning some of the swing states, we'll see the foreign currencies recover, and yields probably slip a little bit."
Chandler also thinks gold will rally higher if Trump takes the White House.
"The way that people have projected it, the Trump budget deficit and debt levels be much greater than Harris," he said. "I think this is why gold still looks relatively bullish. People are still buying dips. It seems to be making higher lows. And so you get the central bank bid, and perhaps now if Trump were to win, maybe more of a U.S. bid."
(10:12 pm EST)
Bitcoin hits a new all-time high
Bitcoin is rallying as Trump leads in the electoral count, hitting a new record high of $75,000 on Coinbase.
(10:09 pm EST)
Still no surprises in the Presidential race
The Associated Press continues to call races at a furious pace but no battleground states have been announced yet.
AP said Donald Trump won Wyoming, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana
At the same time, Harris won New York and Illinois
(9:09 pm EST)
Harris takes a Democrat stronghold
The Associated Press is calling Delaware for Harris. "Harris' victory in solid-blue Delaware was a foregone conclusion, given the stranglehold Democrats have held on the state's three electoral votes for decades," the AP said in its update.
Trump still has the lead with 101 electoral votes and Harris is catching up with 52 electoral votes.
(8:38 p.m. EST)
Trump takes another red state and Harris another blue state
The Associated Press is calling Arkansas for Trump. Meanwhile AP is calling the race in New Jersey for Harris.
(8:33 p.m. EST)
Bitcoin approaching all-time high
Bitcoin is rallying hard and is closing in on the all-time high price of $73,737.94 set on March 14.
Bitcoin last traded at $72,224 for a gain of 2.65% on the daily chart.
(8:38 pm EST)
S&P futures rallying as early electoral votes favor Trump
Equity futures are rallying as the early returns show Trump leading the electoral college votes 90 to 27 over Harris.
S&P 500 futures last traded at 5,848.75 and are up 0.62% on the daily chart.
(8:24 pm EST)
Results are coming in fast and furious
The Associated Press has called a number of races as of 8 p.m. as more polls start to close. According to the AP Trump has won in Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
Meanwhile, the AP says Harris has won in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maryland.
According to some pundits, there have been no major surprises in the results so far. Trump has won 95 electoral votes and Harris has won 35.
(8:09 pm EST)
Trump takes West Virginia
Just over 20 minutes ago AP called West Virginia for Trump
(7:56 pm EST)
The direction of US gov't debt will be more important than who is living in the White House - MarketVectors
Early results in the U.S. Presidential election are coming in but one market analyst it will be important to pay attention to the government's fiscal plans rather than the leadership.
Steven Schoenfeld, CEO of MarketVector Indexes, said in a comment to Kitco News that he expects gold prices to continue to move higher in the coming weeks.
"Regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump ultimately emerge as the winner, both candidates and their aides have articulated policies that will be fiscally expansive, which could spark inflationary pressures," he said.
Looking beyond the U.S. election, Schoenfeld said that expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its easing cycle later this week will also be bullish for gold as interest rates and bond yields are expected to head lower.
However, he added that the broader landscape remains focused on the size of the U.S. government debt.
"Good government requires fiscal restraint, and unfortunately – based on stated plans and promises - neither presential candidate has demonstrated that they understand what this will mean in budgetary practice. So while the Federal Reserve might want to continue on its path of easing in the coming months, it may need to shift direction to control inflationary sparks and/or jawbone the Executive and Legislative branches to control spending," he said.
(7:43 PM EST)
Trump takes an early lead in electoral votes
Polls are starting to close in Eastern U.S. and we are starting to get some results. AP has called Kentucky and Indian for Trump. Meanwhile AP says Harris won in Vermont.
With these wins Trump as 19 electoral votes and Harris has 3 but its a long race to 270
(7:30 PM EST)
Gold prices trading in narrow range as early results trickle in
Spot gold has traded in a narrow $2 range between $2,742 and $2,744 per ounce since the daily chart rolled over at 6 pm ET, with the early results from Indiana and Kentucky beginning to come in.
The polls will close at 7 p.m. ET in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.
(6:49 PM EST)
What to look for in this election
One of the closest presidential races in recent history comes to an end today as voters head to the polls. Election results will start trickling in early in the evening. Some states close their polls as early as 7 p.m., while others stay open as late as 9 p.m. local time. The last poll closes in Alaska at 8 p.m. PT (11 p.m. ET).
The next U.S. President will be the first candidate to claim 270 electoral votes. According to analysts at TD Securities, quoting various betting sites, Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris each have 226 electoral votes in their respective stronghold states.
Political pundits suggest that key swing states to watch this evening include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A poll published over the weekend also puts Iowa into play, as Harris took the lead in that state.
Pundits also note that Pennsylvania will be a critical state to win, as it has the most electoral votes up for grabs, with a total of 19.
(4:43 PM EST)
The best outcome for gold in the 2024 U.S. elections - SocGen
The U.S. election has been a critical driver of gold demand throughout the summer. According to commodity analysts at Société Générale, the best scenario for gold would be a close race.
"A disputed election would be the most bullish outcome, as a prolonged recount would likely trigger a flight to safety," the analysts said in a note.
The second-best scenario would be a clean sweep for either political party.
"The winner would be able to implement its fiscally intensive program, driving up U.S. public debt," the analysts said.
The main risk for gold would be the status quo, with a split Congress. They added that due to current bullish positioning, the market could see a short-term correction.
"This would create attractive entry points, as we believe the long-term drivers are clearly skewed to the upside," the analysts said.
(4:43 PM EST)
