(Kitco News) – The safe haven play was in full effect on Wednesday morning, with gold and Bitcoin (BTC) trending higher while stocks sank lower as geopolitical tensions weighed on the minds of investors, who also pared back their stock trading ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.
While gold is climbing as traders embrace its long history of being a store of wealth, multiple factors are pushing the price of Bitcoin higher, including its cyclical post-halving bullishness and an improving regulatory outlook as Donald Trump continues to nominate pro-crypto individuals to his administration.
“I'm not so sure the price movement is directly tied to the Ukraine-Russia conflict,” said Haider Rafique, a Chief Marketing Officer at OKX. “What seems to be driving the supply shock and price pressure is the sheer volume of large institutional orders.”
“When you analyze the sell pressure below $90K, it’s minimal compared to the overwhelming buy pressure — mostly from institutions, not just retail investors,” he added. “Michael Saylor's continuous large purchases are fueling anticipation, and Cathie Wood's bold $1M target by 2030 has people doing the math, which adds to the momentum.”
Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin bulls regrouped near support at $92,000 overnight after rallying to a new all-time high above $94,000 on Tuesday and are now once again on the charge, elevating the top crypto to a new record high of $95,000, with nothing but blue skies ahead of them.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
“Bitcoin climbed close to $94K on Tuesday night, updating all-time highs,” noted Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Unlike last week's attack, the new highs were not followed by stop orders and margin calls from shorts. Instead, they moved into the $100K-plus area.”
As for what comes next, most analysts say that a $100,000 Bitcoin price is a foregone conclusion, and they have now turned their attention to predicting the bull cycle top.
“The predicted timing for Bitcoin's peak varies according to different indicators,” said Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research. “Specifically, Bitcoin is known for its roughly four-year cycle, typically coinciding with its halving events. Halving reduces the reward for mining new blocks, historically leading to price increases due to reduced supply. The last halving occurred in April 2024, so if this cycle remains consistent, the peak or ‘top’ of the cycle may occur around late 2025. According to some analytical models, this could be between August and September 2025.”
“Another approach to predicting the cycle top is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which is considered capable of predicting cycle tops within days,” he added. “This indicator uses moving averages to identify when Bitcoin might reach its peak. If its past accuracy holds true, we could see a peak around December 2024 or January 2025, which aligns with Bitcoin’s historical pattern of reaching new all-time highs after the midpoint of its cycle.”
Lee said that a combination of market sentiment and technical analysis puts the peak somewhere between the two indicators.
“Market sentiment and technical analysis present a different outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin may reach a new high within 6-9 months after a mid-cycle peak, which is estimated to occur around early 2024,” he said. “This projection places a potential peak between late 2024 and mid-2025. Price target predictions vary significantly, but some analysts have mentioned the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $118,928 or even climbing as high as $130,000 to $150,000 by late 2025.”
“Predicting the top of a Bitcoin cycle remains complex, as it depends on a convergence of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, market dynamics, policy changes, and more,” Lee concluded. “This multi-faceted influence makes it challenging to pinpoint an exact timing with certainty.”
According to technical and on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin’s price action looks similar to how it did in late 2020, just before it went on a parabolic rally, and if it mirrors that time frame, it could hit $135,000 in short order.
#Bitcoin looks like it did in December 2020. Even the RSI is nearly identical. If true, $BTC will go to $108,000, drop to $99,000, and bounce to $135,000! pic.twitter.com/hsIBWBVGnl
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 20, 2024
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $94,522 for an increase of 2.32% on the 24-hour chart.
