(Kitco News) – The renewed faith of gold bugs was rewarded this week, as the yellow metal finally broke through the $3,000 per ounce level on its way to a strong five-day performance.
Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $2,913.63 per ounce, and held comfortably above the $2,900 level until a Monday afternoon dip saw it fall to the low 2880s.
The slide was short-lived, however, as gold prices moved back above $2,900 early Tuesday morning, and from there the yellow metal established inviolable support through Tuesday's trading session.
Wednesday morning brought the week's first real drama, as a cooler-than-expected CPI print prompted a brief retest of $2,910 per ounce 15 minutes before the North American market open, which then spurred the bulls to drive spot gold all the way to $2,940 by 1:30 p.m. Eastern.
In what proved to be a recurring pattern, this new higher range above $2,930 immediately became solid support, with the spot market falling no lower than $2,933 per ounce during the Asian and European trading sessions.
Thursday’s trading followed the exact same script, as gold prices dipped slightly after a lower-than-expected PPI inflation report, prompting North American traders to drive the yellow metal right through the previous all-time high and all the way to $2,985 per ounce by early afternoon. Again, precious metals investors showed no interest whatsoever in selling, and the spot price spiked just shy of $3,000 per ounce during the Asian session.
After a brief pullback to retest support near $2,985, European traders took the baton and finally drove spot gold to its new all-time high of $3,005.04 at 6:15 a.m. Eastern. North American traders then initiated a retest of the $2,980 support level, but this held easily, and the yellow metal traded in a narrow range between $2,980 and $2,990 for the duration of Friday's trading.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed bullish sentiment among industry experts and retail traders remaining strong despite the unprecedented price levels, with a solid majority of both camps predicting higher gold prices during the week ahead.
“Up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “Strong central bank buying continues, and gold will move above $3,000. That round number is not a barrier for foreign central banks, or indeed foreign buyers who price gold in their own currencies.”
“Though President Trump may try to cool trade tensions and come up with a more definitive plan, the concerns abroad remain,” Day added. “And North American buyers are finally joining the turn to gold, adding a buying source that has been absent over the last two years.”
“Hanging in there,” said Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, who remained neutral on the yellow metal again for next week.
“Lower,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “After reaching $3,000, I expect to see a bout of profit-taking before we assault $3,000 again.”
“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Neither fundamental nor technical analysis matters at this point. Gold is the safe-haven market at a time when global economics and politics are in a state of intentional upheaval. That’s the safest way I can describe the situation at this time.”
“Down,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “I think 3k will bring some sellers into the mix, although I’m only looking for pullbacks at this point rather than full-fledged reversals.”
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said he could easily make the case for gold to move in either direction in the near term because prices are being driven by the daily news cycle.
“This has been really a real drama-filled market here,” he said. “There's a lot of uncertainties. Now you have a roll [to the next monthly Comex contract]. There's too much uncertainty geopolitically, and obviously with the trade war. Where else are you going to put your money? It's coming out of equities and coming into gold.”
“We've rallied in 2023, big rally, 2024, big rally, start of ‘25 rally,” Lusk added. “Now, we have more uncertainties. It couldn't be any better for gold the last three years. You’ve got the central banks supporting it on any kind of sizable dips, increasing their holdings all across the world. On top of the fact that you have the geopolitical concerns that were real, now you have a trade war. It's inspiring no confidence in equities for the near term here.”
“We've already hit the 10% [annual] threshold at $2,904,” he pointed out. “Another 5% takes you up to $3,036. We blow through that, you can go to $3,168. But we're in uncharted waters obviously, because we're at all-time highs.”
Lusk said the rate of change under the Trump administration is so accelerated that it’s difficult to project any market out even a few days. “The news cycle and everything is changing so rapidly that it's hard to keep up,” he said. “There's something else entering the market seemingly every 12 hours. Four days ago, it was this issue, and that's been kicked to the can and forgotten about.”
“The markets are like some Netflix show that you binge watch, and what was important three episodes ago, you can't even remember it,” he added. “In that environment, you're not going to see longer-term sustainable upside or downside. There's going to be some correction, I suspect that you're going to get whiplash. What's going to be the trigger? Could be economic data, but more likely it's going to be from what someone says that matters, whether it's the President or a finance minister, Premier or who have you.”
And while all the longer-term drivers for gold remain in place, the near-term picture has a fair amount of risk at these elevated levels.
“It may get a little toppy up here in a couple of weeks,” he warned. “You're approaching month and quarter end, so there's reasons to take profits there. If I was long gold, I'd be a little trepidant; I'd be looking for some downside exposure in the form of some really cheap puts.”
This week, 15 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street pulling back its bullishness from last week, albeit only a bit. Nine experts, or 60%, expected to see gold prices rise once again during the week ahead, while three analysts, or 20%, predicted a price decline for the precious metal, and another three experts, saw consolidation for gold after its major milestone.
Meanwhile, 262 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll – the strongest participation yet in 2025 – with Main Street sentiment virtually identical to the previous week. 175 retail traders, or 67%, looked for gold prices to rise above $3,000 next week, while another 47, or 18%, expected the yellow metal to trade lower. The remaining 40 investors, representing 15% of the total, saw gold prices trending sideways in the coming days.
Next week is a massive one for economic news, which, when added to the daily geopolitical churn of the second Trump presidency, promises plenty of risk events for precious metals traders.
Central banks once again dominate the calendar, with the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), the U.S. Federal Reserve (Wednesday), and the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England (Thursday) all delivering rate announcements and updated guidance.
Other notable data include Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday, the Tuesday release of Housing Starts and Building Permits, with weekly jobless claims, Existing Home Sales, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey on Thursday.
Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, expects the gold price to pull back a bit after breaching $3,000.
“Last week had yellow metal retesting record high,” he said. “Pushed to almost $3005 today. Looks strong. Momentum indicators pointing higher.”
“Still, I am a bit reluctant to chase it,” Chandler warned. “I see risk of stronger US real sector data next week, a slightly hawkish hold by FOMC, and maybe stronger USD and firmer rates. Gold in cash market also above upper Bollinger Band (~$2987). Look for a pullback toward $2980.”
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said that while $3,000 per ounce is a significant psychological level, the important thing for traders to know is who’s buying and who’s selling.
“We had a dip in the market, and there were buyers underneath that dip,” he said. “Percentage-wise, it was a nice sell-off, but there's people underneath the market, and we keep getting higher lows.”
“I think that central banks are going to continue to keep buying,” he said. “You see, Poland's increased their central bank holdings dramatically, a lot of them are. Turkey, even China's going back up again. I think it's onward and upward.”
Grady believes that at these levels, not just central banks and institutions are paying attention, but the average investor is also buying into the gold buzz.
“I think you're going to bounce around [$3,000] for a little while,” Grady said. “There's still so much uncertainty in the market, but I think people have bought into it, and if you look at the percentage that gold is up, it's doing well, especially against equities.”
“That $100 sell-off, when you see that violent sell-off, the specs are getting out,” he added. “But again, the central banks are the ones buying. If you look at ETF holdings and everything across the board, I think people see it.”
Going forward, Grady said it’s quite possible gold prices will see a pullback, “but I think, again, what you're going to see is higher lows,” he said. “Maybe you pull back to $2,950 and now you're building a good base. And I think it's healthy for a market.”
“The best way to see how strong a market is to sell it,” he added, “and you see how resilient a market really is. When the algos come in, and they see the traders, everyone's long, and they see the spec positions, and when it gets overdone, they come in and they sell into it, and they try to force the longs out. That's what they've been doing, but what they're finding now is that there's buyers underneath the market.”
“I don't think $3,000 is going to be a floor and we're going to head right to $4,000,” Grady said. “I think you're going to see some tests down there, but I do think you're going to see higher lows.”
Analysts at CPM Group told Kitco News on Friday that they’ve issued a buy recommendation for next week, with an initial target of $3,050 on Comex futures.
“Gold prices breached $3,000 this morning, with the active April Comex gold futures contract reaching $3,017.10 at one point,” they said. “It would not be surprising to see gold prices break above this recent record high next week or even today still. Market participants appear to not want to be short over this weekend, with all of the political uncertainty continuing to rise. This is all increasingly represented in financial markets.”
The analysts said profit-taking could result in a pull-back to the $2,980 area in the next couple of days, but it makes sense to remain long given “the enormous economic and political risks and uncertainties.”
“In this uncertain time, price volatility can surge sharply on short notice,” they warned. “For example, on Monday, gold prices had settled at $2,899.40 and are now up more than $100. The roll of the April contract will increase and likely help prices continue to trend higher.”
“Open interest in the April Comex contract was 27.5 million ounces as of 13 March,” CPM added. “This contract becomes deliverable at the end of the month, meaning those that do not want to take or deliver gold must close out their positions by then.”
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said gold prices are being driven higher by expectations of lower interest rates.
“The gold price has returned to renewed historical highs,” he said. “On the tech analysis side, we see a typical resumption of growth after a corrective pullback. As we repeatedly noted earlier, the potential target of this growth impulse looks like the area of $3,190. A more distant growth target looks like the area of $3,400.”
“Not typical in this case is the fact that the increase in the price of gold occurred sometimes simultaneously with the strengthening of the dollar and sometimes together with the fall in the stock markets,” Kuptsikevich added. “The only reliable correlation we see with gold is sentiment on global monetary policy. Economic weakness and slowing global inflation are fueling the rise in the price of gold.”
“I am overall bullish,” said Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics. “The trade below 29282 (+6 tics per/hour) mentioned last week brought in $45.7 of pressure before rallying. The trade above 29313 (-.4 of a tic per/hour) renewed bullishness. In a higher time frame, we are still in an overall bull trend from November 2015, and likely in the later stages. Part of this is a prediction I made of $151 minimum, $954 (+) maximum from $2,148.4 - of which we have attained $868.7 so far. This is OFF HOLD.”
“On a lower time frame, the trade above 27041 (-.6 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $313.0 of strength,” he added. “The trade above 27247 (-.6 of a tic per/hour) projected this upward $55 minimum, $235 (+) maximum - we have attained $292.4. These are OFF HOLD. I warned we may be in the last stretch up from the 16183 low in November of 2022, with possible exhaustion at 29627-936 - we held this 5 times, but this has now been violated. Decent trade below 29816 (+.2 of a tic per/hour starting at 10:20 am), should bring in decent pressure.”
And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff expects gold prices to move beyond this week’s all-time highs next week. “Higher on safe-haven bids, bullish charts, ideas of easier Fed.”
At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $2,984.91 per ounce for a slight loss of 0.13% on the day but a solid gain of 2.49% on the week.
