(Kitco News) – Silver’s struggles are continuing even as gold prices surge to nearly $3,150 per ounce, and the gray metal could be vulnerable to a further decline, according to analyst James Hyerczyk at FX Empire.
“Silver prices are softening even as gold charges to new record highs, highlighting a notable divergence between the two metals that often move in tandem,” he wrote. “While gold surged past $3149 on safe-haven flows, silver is struggling to clear resistance, weighed by technical headwinds and potentially weaker industrial demand signals.”
Hyerczyk said that in contrast, gold prices have benefited from rising geopolitical tensions and fears over new U.S. tariffs. “Markets are positioning defensively ahead of President Trump’s expected announcement on reciprocal tariffs, adding a fresh layer of uncertainty,” he said. “In parallel, increasing volatility around U.S.-Russia and Middle East tensions is pushing funds toward safe assets.”
“Additional support comes from expectations of looser monetary policy,” he added. “Goldman Sachs recently raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing prospects for more Federal Reserve rate cuts. Central banks have remained steady buyers of gold since 2022, while ETF inflows show retail and institutional investors are also adding exposure. This multi-pronged support has helped gold extend its rally by over $150 in a matter of sessions.”
But unlike previous precious metal bull markets, silver is stubbornly refusing to follow gold’s lead higher. “The market is facing resistance at $34.59 and a more significant ceiling between $34.87 and $35.40,” Hyerczyk said. “Monday’s bounce off $33.625 offered temporary relief, but traders remain cautious. A break below this minor support could accelerate losses toward the 50-day moving average at $32.43.”
“This underperformance may be tied to weaker industrial signals out of China—a key demand center for silver—and a lack of buying interest from central banks, which have concentrated allocations heavily in gold,” he wrote. “Unlike gold, silver lacks the same safe-haven cachet and remains vulnerable to swings in global manufacturing sentiment.”
Turning to the near-term forecast, Hyerczyk said that gold’s technical setup remains bullish, but some indicators signal overbought conditions which could lead to a pullback to strong support just under $3,000 per ounce.
“Silver, however, appears range-bound and vulnerable,” he said. “Failure to hold above $33.625 opens the door to a steeper correction. Until macro drivers improve or silver breaks out above $35.40, traders may continue to favor gold over silver for directional exposure.”
After being driven down to $33.604 in overnight trading, silver has traded in a relatively wide range on Wednesday, but has managed to hold onto some solid gains ahead of President Trump’s highly anticipated tariff announcement.
Spot silver last traded at $33.886 for a gain of 0.57% on the session at the time of writing.
