(Kitco News) – Gold’s price prospects are skewed to the upside over the next 18 months, while silver and platinum are projected to build on their recent strength through 2026, according to precious metals analysts at the World Bank.
“Precious metal prices surged to record highs in the first half of 2025, building on a 20-percent increase in 2024,” wrote Senior Economist Jeetendra Khadan and Researcher-Analyst Kaltrina Temaj at the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “The rally was led by gold, which approached all-time highs in mid-June amid escalating geopolitical tensions and elevated economic uncertainty.”
They added that silver and platinum also posted strong gains, with prices expected to remain elevated through 2025 and 2026.
Gold was up nearly 25 percent during the first six months of 2025, the analysts noted. “Recent price increases have been driven by strong demand amid elevated policy uncertainty and intensifying geopolitical tensions. A sharp resurgence in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows in the first quarter of 2025 pushed investment demand to its highest level since 2022. Central bank purchases continued to provide support, reflecting reserve-management strategies.”
The authors wrote that strong demand is expected to persist in the near term, supported by elevated global uncertainty and geopolitical risks. “Gold prices are projected to rise by about 35 percent in 2025 (y/y), before easing modestly in 2026 as some of the prevailing uncertainties begin to recede,” they said. “Nonetheless, prices are projected to remain well above historical norms—around 150 percent higher than their 2015–19 average—through 2025–26. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the upside, with geopolitical developments expected to remain a major source of uncertainty.”
Silver also maintained its strong 2024 momentum, gaining nearly 20 percent in the first half of 2025. “Even with strong silver price gains, the gold-to-silver price ratio climbed further above its 10-year average in early 2025, continuing its steady upward trend,” they noted. “This partly reflects stronger relative demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid heightened uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.”
Going forward, the World Bank expects silver demand to remain robust, supported by the gray metal’s dual role as both an industrial input and a safe-haven asset.
“Heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty could further bolster silver’s appeal among investors,” the analysts said. “On the supply side, global output is projected to rise steadily in 2025, driven by expanding mine production. Recycling, which accounts for about 20 percent of global supply, is expected to remain flat following a 6 percent increase in 2024. On balance, firm demand is expected to lift silver prices by 17 percent in 2025 (y/y), with a further 3 percent gain projected in 2026.”
And platinum was the latest precious metal to join the rally, with prices surging nearly 30 percent during the first half of 2025 to reach their highest levels in over a decade.
“The rally has been largely driven by tightening supply, with mine production projected to decline and reach a five-year low this year,” they wrote. “Modest gains in recycling are expected to only partly offset the shortfall, while aboveground stocks are set to decline sharply.”
Platinum demand, however, is expected to see significant declines from both the automotive and industrial sectors, which together account for nearly two-thirds of global platinum use.
“Despite subdued demand overall, supply constraints are expected to support prices, with a 10 percent rise projected in 2025 (y/y) and a further 2 percent gain in 2026,” the analysts said.
Looking ahead, the World Bank believes gold prices are on track to reach their highest annual average on record. “Silver prices are expected to increase further, underpinned by resilient demand, while tight supply conditions will continue to support platinum prices,” the analysts said. “However, a further escalation in global tensions could lift gold prices above current projections, whereas weaker-than-expected industrial activity may dampen demand and drag silver and platinum prices below current forecasts.”
