(Kitco News) - Although the gold rally has shifted into neutral, there is plenty of potential for a second act in the second half of the year, according to analysts at CIBC.
On Tuesday, the Canadian bank significantly increased its gold price forecast on the expectation that safe-haven demand to continue driving prices through year-end. The analysts said they see gold prices averaging around $3,339 an ounce this year, up more than 19% from their December forecast.
“We continue to favor gold’s technical structure from absolute trend and relative diversification perspectives. Our technical work suggests a price trajectory closer to $3,700-$3,800 levels with periodic consolidations over $3,175-$3,000 levels, maintaining the secular uptrend channel for gold,” the analysts said.
Heading into the second half, CIBC sees gold prices pushing to $3,600 and maintaining that price through 2026. The bank projects gold prices will average around $3,000 in 2027.
“We continue to expect a positive macroeconomic setup for gold,” the analysts said. “We anticipate tariff policy uncertainty will continue, and we believe the U.S. economy has not yet reflected the negative impact of the tariffs implemented to date, and those to come, on consumer purchasing power. While Trump has made trade policy progress with China, the U.K., and Vietnam in recent months, several countries have yet to come to agreements.”
Although the ongoing trade war continues to support elevated inflation, CIBC said it expects weaker economic growth and lower energy prices to force the Federal Reserve to eventually cut interest rates.
“We believe rate cuts are likely and it’s a matter of ‘when and how fast’, and not ‘if’,” the analysts said.
The June Consumer Price Index showed inflation pressures continuing to rise, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Following the Tuesday morning release, markets have completely priced out a rate cut later this month, but a September rate cut is still on the table.
Looking beyond domestic monetary policy, CIBC said it also expects gold to remain an important safe-haven asset as the global trade war exacerbates the ongoing de-dollarization trend. The analysts said they expect central banks to continue buying gold.
“In the back half of 2025, we expect gold to continue to appeal as a wealth preservation tool, especially compared against other alternatives. Year-to-date, de-dollarization has remained a key theme,” the analysts said. “While the U.S. dollar has been the world’s primary reserve currency in the past, de-dollarization has become a more prevalent topic due to recent geopolitical and geostrategic shifts, and Trump’s trade war. We expect the trend of global central banks shifting away from U.S. assets in their reserves toward gold to mitigate concerns over reliance on the U.S. dollar will continue.”
The Canadian bank is also bullish on silver, but the analysts don’t see prices pushing above $40 an ounce until 2026.
“Technicals for silver suggest a more promising backdrop from a tactical perspective,” the analysts said. “Silver relative strength is showing as a catch-up trade and remains well positioned for continued breakouts that should bring about absolute follow-through momentum with a price trajectory that can be calculated toward 40.56 and 43.50 levels.”
