(Kitco News) – UBS has raised its Q1 2026 gold price target by $100 to $3,600 per ounce, with the Swiss banking giant now expecting 2025 to see the strongest bullion demand since 2011.
UBS analysts cited persistent U.S. macroeconomic risks, de-dollarization trends, and strong investment demand — especially from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks — as the main factors they see driving gold prices to new all-time highs.
"We see US macro-related risks, questions over Fed independence, worries about fiscal sustainability, and geopolitics underpinning de-dollarization trends and more central bank buying,” they wrote. “In our view, these factors will drive gold prices even higher.”
UBS also raised its Q2 2026 forecast by $200 to $3,700 per ounce and added a new Q3 target at the same level.
The analysts also pointed to sticky U.S. inflation, below-trend economic growth, and continued dollar weakness as additional supports for higher gold prices.
Strong demand from ETFs and central banks was a major factor in the bank’s upgraded forecasts.
UBS raised its 2025 ETF gold demand forecast from 450 tonnes to nearly 600 tonnes based on World Gold Council data showing the strongest first-half inflows since 2010.
"Central bank purchases should stay strong, albeit slightly below last year's near-record purchases,” they wrote. “We, therefore, now forecast global gold demand to increase by 3% to 4,760 mt in 2025, which would mark the highest level since 2011.”
On July 15, UBS said that while they believe White House tariff escalation is a negotiation tactic and the numbers will eventually come back down, they still recommend buying gold as a hedge against policy risk.
Analysts at UBS Wealth Management wrote in the report that their base case sees U.S. effective tariff rates settling near 15% - less than half of the 30% to 35% rates announced at the time – which will support continued gains in the S&P 500.
Gold prices posted steady gains in overnight trading and hit a session high of $3,350.27 per ounce just before 11 am EDT.
Spot gold last traded at $3,344.51 per ounce for a gain of 0.87% on the session.
