(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading Thursday, as the marketplace is focusing on an important central bank meeting in the western U.S. that begins today. December gold was last down $12.60 at $3,375.80. September silver prices were down $0.078 at $37.69.
Stock and financial markets have been quieter this week, ahead of the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium that gets into full swing today and is hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Friday morning and is expected to update the Fed's monetary policy framework. Powell's speech will be the economic highlight of the week for the marketplace and could provide a new perspective on how much FOMC support there is to lower U.S. interest rates in September.
The latest FOMC minutes, out Wednesday afternoon, showed most Federal Reserve officials believe the risk to problematic inflation outweighs concerns over the U.S. labor market at their meeting last month, as trade tariffs fueled a growing divide within the Fed’s rate-setting committee. A majority of the 18 policymakers in attendance “judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks,” according to the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Several FOMC members emphasized that U.S. inflation has exceeded 2% for an extended period and that has increased the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the event of drawn-out effects of higher tariffs on inflation.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open a bit weaker when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, Swiss gold exports to the U.S. surged last month to the highest since March, with shipments of bullion jumping to almost 51 tons in July. Record bullion exports worth more than $36 billion made up more than two-thirds of Switzerland's trade surplus with the U.S. in the first quarter. The Swiss National Bank argued that outsized gold exports to the U.S. shouldn’t be included when analyzing the trade relationship between the two economies.
Vice President J.D. Vance said negotiations over ending Russia's war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control, according to a Bloomberg report. Vance said Ukraine wants to know it's not going to get invaded again by Russia and wants territorial integrity, while the Russians want certain pieces of territory. Vance described Russian President Putin as "more soft-spoken than you would necessarily expect" and "very deliberate" and "very careful" based on their phone conversations, said the Bloomberg report.
Asian oil refiners have been buying crude from farther afield, including the U.S., Brazil, and Nigeria, due to in part President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, reports Bloomberg. Despite the purchases of light, low-sulfur crudes, the market is bracing for a glut, with traders expecting a surplus of crude in the coming months, according to Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant, as reported by Bloomberg. “The expected glut is mainly due to OPEC+'s restoration of sidelined barrels and producers outside the alliance, such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, pumping more,” suggesting average global crude oil production is running ahead of demand growth.
Eurozone, India manufacturing sectors show solid growth despite tariffs… The eurozone’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 15 months as manufacturing exited a three-year downturn despite a deal locking in higher levies for exports to the U.S. The composite purchasing managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global rose to 51.1 in August from 50.9 in July, farther above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Analysts had predicted a reading of 50.6. While Eurozone services weakened a little, in line with estimates, manufacturing saw a jump to 50.5, beating expectations for a slight slowdown and recording its first expansion since June 2022. Meantime, The HSBC India manufacturing PMI rose to 59.8 in August 2025 from a final reading of 59.1 in July, surpassing market forecasts of 59.1, preliminary estimates showed. This marked the highest level since January 2008, driven by a sharp rise in new orders amid strong domestic demand.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, with crude oil prices up and trading around $63.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.306%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at $3,400.00 and then at this week’s high of $3,403.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,353.40 and then at $3,350.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at $38.00 and then at this week’s high of $38.34. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $36.96 and then at $36.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Sign up here; it’s real easy. https://www.kitco.com/services
