(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading Friday, on this last trading day of the week and of the month, and just ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading this morning. December gold was last down $7.90 at $3,466.40. September silver prices were off $0.205 at $38.99.
Traders and investors will closely examine this morning’s U.S. personal income and expenditures data, including the inflation readings. The Federal Reserve is said to watch the personal income inflation data closely. The July PCE price index is seen coming in at up 2.6%, year-on-year, with the “core” PCE reading (excluding food and energy) seen coming in at up 2.9%. In the June report, the PCE was up 2.6% and the core PCE was up 2.8% annually. Then many traders and investors will hit the exit doors early to get a jump on a three-day U.S. holiday weekend.
Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller in a speech in Miami Thursday called for lower U.S. interest rates, saying he would support a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Waller said he anticipates additional rate cuts over the next three to six months, with the pace driven by incoming data. Waller said the chances of an undesirable weakening in the labor market have increased, and proper risk management means the FOMC should be cutting rates now. Waller is reportedly in the running to be the next Federal Reserve chairman.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has authorized the start of a process to retaliate against the 50% U.S. tariffs, Brazil’s Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said, according to a Bloomberg report. The U.S. government will be formally notified of the decision today, according to a person familiar with the matter. The move was reported earlier by the O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper. Brazil’s Chamber of Foreign Trade now has up to 30 days to analyze the U.S. tariffs and determine whether they fall under the reciprocity law passed by Brazil’s congress earlier this year. If the chamber approves, a group of ministries will study which countermeasures to apply.
Bloomberg reported Thursday that Beijing made a quiet outreach to New Delhi in March to test the waters on improving ties. Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote a letter to his Indian counterpart, Droupadi Murmu, expressing concern about any U.S. deals that would harm China’s interests, an official in New Delhi familiar with the matter said. China’s Foreign Ministry said today that Xi’s meeting with Modi in Kazan, Russia in October last year led to a restart in relations. “The competent authorities of China and India have earnestly implemented the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, promoted the resumption of institutional dialogue and conducted normal exchanges,” it said and as reported by Bloomberg.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer, with crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $64.25 a barrel. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently 4.23 percent.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the advance economic indicators report, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,479.60 and then at $3,500.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $3,442.50 and then at $3,422.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
September silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $39.335 and then at $39.91. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $38.68 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
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