(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, on routine profit-taking after gold scored a record high and silver a 14-year high on Wednesday. There is a big U.S. data dump today, followed by a very important U.S. economic report on Friday. December gold was last down $32.10 at $3,603.60. December silver prices were down $0.53 at $41.52.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national employment report, the international trade report, revised productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and monthly chain store sales.
The U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department is due Friday morning and is arguably one of the most important U.S. data points of the month. Analysts expect Friday’s employment report to extend the weakest stretch of U.S. jobs growth since the pandemic, likely locking in a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. The key nonfarm payrolls number is seen up 75,000 in August, which would mark a fourth straight month of jobs growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.3%, which would be the highest level since 2021.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, released Wednesday afternoon, said U.S. economic activity saw “little or no change” across most of the country in recent weeks. Fed contacts reported flat to declining consumer spending because wages were failing to keep up with rising prices, and every region saw price increases. Eleven districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while one district described a modest decline. “Nearly all districts noted tariff-related price increases, with contacts from many districts reporting that tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs,” according to the beige book. Business contacts across industries related to insurance, utilities and technology also reported higher prices.
President Trump has asked the Supreme Court to uphold his global tariffs, seeking review in a case that could affect trade and give him broad new leverage over the world economy.
A defeat for Trump would cut the current average U.S. effective tariff rate by at least half and could force the U.S. to refund tens of billions of dollars, according to Bloomberg Economics. The administration has asked the court to take up the case by September 10 and to put it on a highly expedited schedule with arguments in early November. This follows a federal appeals court ruling that said Trump can’t impose wide-scale import taxes by invoking a 1977 law designed to address national emergencies.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, with crude oil prices lower and trading around $63.00 a barrel. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently 4.21 percent.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,500.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,621.60 and then at Wednesday’s contract high of $3,640.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $3,573.70 and then at $3,550.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.
December silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $45.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $38.00. First resistance is seen at $42.00 and then at this week’s high of $42.29. Next support is seen at $41.00 and then at this week’s low of $40.555. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.
(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Sign up here; it’s real easy. https://www.kitco.com/services
