(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading Wednesday, with gold hitting another record high and silver another 14-year high. Safe-have bidding is featured at mid-week as the U.S. government has shut down. December gold was last up $37.80 at $3,911.00. December silver prices were up $0.925 at $47.565.
The yellow metal is now in easy striking distance of $4,000.00 an ounce. Gold has soared more than 48% this year, putting it on track for the biggest annual gain since 1979. Silver prices are closing in on the all-time record high of just above $50.00, hit in 1980.
A midnight U.S. government funding deadline passed with no agreement among Congress members, triggering the government's first shutdown in nearly seven years and shuttering the government, aside from essential duties. The shutdown could be prolonged due to a stalemate over health care subsidies, with the White House's budget office ordering agencies to begin executing their plans for a funding lapse. The shutdown would disrupt the jobs of hundreds of thousands of Americans, upend many public services and could have economic effects, including a potential spike in the unemployment rate and delays in key economic data, including this Friday’s Labor Department employment situation report for September.
Global stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Today is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective.
One firm is forecasting crude oil prices to drop into the $50s a barrel range in the coming quarters on expectations for “punishing oversupply” as output expands. Macquarie Group analysts remain “fundamentally bearish the energy complex” due to crude-supply growth from OPEC-plus and drillers outside the group, Global crude surplus is projected, with Macquarie forecasting a surplus of 4.63 million barrels a day in the first quarter of next year, followed by smaller surpluses in each of the next three quarters. Last month, the International Energy Agency projected that world output would exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels a day in 2026. That would be a historic overhang in annual terms.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down, while crude oil prices are lower and trading around $62.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.152%.
U.S. economic data due for release today includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, construction spending, domestic auto industry sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,750.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,922.70 and then at $3,950.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,880.30 and then at $3,850.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.
December silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $44.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $47.825 and then at $48.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $46.815 and then at this week’s low of $45.96. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.
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