(Kitco News) – The ongoing bull market rally that has already propelled gold to successive all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce will drive prices as high as $5,000 early next year, according to analysts at HSBC.
“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H’26 and we could very well reach a high of $5,000/oz some time in 1H 2026,” the British banking giant said in a Friday research note. The analysts’ forecast is supported by elevated risks to the global economy and the impact of new entrants into the precious metals market.
HSBC also raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,455 per ounce, up from $3,355, and increased its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,600, up from its previous estimate of $3,950 per ounce.
HSBC noted that gold’s advance has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, rising exchange-traded-fund inflows, expectations of U.S. rate cuts and tariff-related economic uncertainties. The bank also cited economic policy uncertainty and rising public debt as factors supporting the price.
HSBC warned, however, that they also expect significant volatility followed by some price moderation in the second half of 2026.
“Unlike previous rallies, we believe many of these new buyers are likely stay in the gold space – even after the rally ends – not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ‘safe haven’ qualities,” the analysts wrote.
Gold is seeing a pullback in Friday’s trading after the yellow metal’s spot price hit a new all-time high of $4,380.99 at 1 am EDT.
Spot gold last traded at $4,248.41 for a loss of 1.79% on the daily chart.
