(Kitco News) - While gold continues to experience elevated volatility as prices hold above $4,000 an ounce, one Canadian bank expects this bull market to maintain its momentum through the next two years and potentially beyond.
In its quarterly gold forecast, commodity analysts at CIBC said that economic uncertainty has created a parabolic shift in gold and silver.
“We continue to expect a positive macroeconomic setup for gold. We anticipate tariff policy uncertainty will continue, and we believe the U.S. economy has not yet reflected the negative impact of the tariffs implemented to date, and those to come, on consumer purchasing power,” the analysts said.
The comments come as CIBC has significantly upgraded its 2026 gold price forecast. Analysts see the yellow metal averaging around $4,500 an ounce next year and in 2027—an increase of 25% and 36%, respectively, from their previous estimates.
Looking long-term, the bank sees $3,300 an ounce as the new normal for gold.
CIBC is also bullish on silver, with analysts projecting prices to average around $55 an ounce next year and in 2027—an increase of 22% and 45%, respectively, from their previous forecasts.
Long-term silver prices are expected to hover around $38 an ounce.
Examining gold’s current momentum, CIBC said that while the move above $4,000 is striking, it is not a huge surprise given the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shift and growing expectations that the central bank will continue to cut interest rates even as inflation pressures remain elevated.
“Despite sticky inflation, Powell turned his attention away from inflation risks and focused on job market risks, offering the cover needed for that first 25bps cut in September. Market expectations now sit at 50bps additional of rate cuts before year-end,” the analysts said. “We believe that gold’s ascent earlier this year was tied to rate cuts, but the recent parabolic shift is the result of longer-term inflation and wealth preservation concerns, given that the monetary guardrails of the Fed are not specifically focused on longer-term inflation.”
At the same time, CIBC expects that central banks will continue buying gold as they diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
CIBC is also watching the digital marketplace, noting that gold has become a popular anchor for stablecoins.
“Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, has quietly become a significant purchaser of physical gold. As part of a broader strategy to diversify away from cash and short-term treasuries, the company has added billions of dollars of gold to its reserves. As of Q2/25, Tether’s gold holdings had increased by 30% YTD, with an estimated addition of 19t,” the analysts said.
While CIBC remains bullish on gold and silver in the long term, the analysts noted that the sector is currently overbought.
“Gold and silver technical indicators remain structurally positive; however, signs of exhaustion are emerging in mean-reversion metrics,” the analysts said. “Technical peaks in RSI and stochastic factors indicate a likely period of consolidation, which may lead to a corrective mean reversion and a possible decline toward the rising 50-day and 100-day moving averages, currently at $3,550 and $3,440, respectively. While there is a risk of short-term consolidation and mean reversion (-12% to -15%), the longer-term uptrend remains firmly in place.”
They added that any correction in gold and silver should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
