(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to consolidate, unable to hold gains above $4,000 an ounce. However, one financial institution expects gold to get its groove back in the first quarter of next year.
Although gold remains sharply below last month’s all-time highs, Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING, said in her monthly gold update that she remains positive on the precious metal. She said she still expects gold prices to average around $4,000 in the fourth quarter, with average prices rising to $4,100 in the first quarter of 2026.
“Even after the recent weakness, gold prices are still up by more than 50% year-to-date. Key supports, including central bank and haven demand, remain in place. ETF buying should also resume as the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting interest rates,” she said in her report. “We view the correction as healthy rather than a trend reversal, with any further weakness likely to attract renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers.”
Gold has struggled to attract new bullish momentum after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that a December rate cut is not a sure thing. However, analysts note that growing weakness in the U.S. labor market will force the central bank to cut rates this year and through the first half of next year.
Despite Powell’s hawkish comments, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets see a 71% chance of a rate cut next month.
Manthey noted that investment demand was a key factor in gold’s unprecedented rally in the third quarter. She explained that expectations for interest rate cuts pushed investors into gold-backed exchange-traded funds at the fastest pace in years. According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold-backed ETFs saw their holdings increase by 222 tonnes between July and September.
“Despite the recent withdrawals, we expect ETF buying to resume as the U.S. Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates. Rates traders still see better than 70% odds for an interest rate cut in December,” she said.
She also noted that global bar and coin demand remained robust through the third quarter.
Along with investment demand, gold prices remain well supported as central banks continue to provide a solid floor in the market.
“Central banks remain a key pillar of demand for gold. In 3Q, central banks increased their buying pace following two consecutive quarters of slowing purchases. They bought an estimated 220 tonnes of gold in the quarter, 28% higher than the 2Q total and 6% above the five-year quarterly average,” she said. “And central banks are still hungry for more gold. South Korea’s central bank is said to be considering adding gold to its reserves for the first time since 2013. Serbia's president also recently said that the country’s gold reserves will almost double to 100 tonnes by 2030.”
“We believe the shift in central banks’ purchases has been more structural, and they will continue to add gold to their reserves as strategies on currency reserves shift.”
