(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are up in early U.S. trading Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index, firmer crude oil prices and a slight downtick in U.S. Treasury yields on this day. December gold was last up $25.00 at $4,018.00. December silver prices were up $0.438 at $48.455.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open slightly higher in New York trading.
In overnight news: U.S. Supreme Court listens to Trump tariff arguments with skeptical ears. President Trump’s tariffs faced a barrage of skeptical questions at the Supreme Court Wednesday that signal it may be ready to intervene. “Businesses and countries suffering from the duties and looking for resolution, though, are set for months of uncertainty,” said a Bloomberg report. “Whether or not the high court rules Trump wrongly imposed tariffs on dozens of nations by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the reality is that the president loves tariffs. And trade lawyers and experts say there are plenty of other laws he can draw on to fill the gap if needed, even if none offers the immediacy Trump relishes,” said Bloomberg. “That means uncertainty will hang over big geopolitical negotiations with China, the European Union and other trading partners, and the day-to-day conduct of business for the thousands of companies paying the duties or trying to find ways around them. Betting markets late Wednesday showed declining odds that Trump will prevail, and shares of large U.S. retail brands rallied on hopes for relief from import taxes he imposed this year,” said the report. The Trump administration put on a brave face after Wednesday’s 2 1/2-hour arguments, which featured skeptical questioning by key conservative justices of the government’s case. Speaking in an interview with Fox News, Trump said that he was told the case “went well” and warned that the “entire world would be in a depression” had he not been able to implement the levies on goods from trading partners. “It’s one of the most important, maybe the most, but one of the most important cases in the history of our country,” Trump said and as reported by Bloomberg.
U.S. flights to be reduced by 10% at high-volume airports. The U.S. Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration will cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers and the aviation system during the U.S. government shutdown. The reductions will be staggered, with U.S. carriers informed to cut flight volumes by 4% on Friday and 5% on Saturday, building to 10% sometime next week. International flights won't be affected. The cuts are necessary to maintain air travel safety, according to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who said "the data will dictate what we do" and additional restrictions could be seen if the data goes in the wrong direction. This news likely puts more pressure on U.S. lawmakers to reopen the federal government.
Saudi Arabia reduces its crude oil price to 11-month low. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main oil grade to Asia for December to the lowest level in 11 months, days after OPEC+ signaled a cautious approach by pausing its supply increases for early next year. State producer Saudi Aramco will cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude by $1.20 a barrel to a premium of $1 above the regional benchmark for next month, according to a list seen by Bloomberg. Aramco was expected to trim the price by $1.25, according to a survey of refiners and traders. Saudi Arabia and some other key OPEC+ members said on Sunday they would halt their output increases during the first quarter — after making another modest hike in December — as they try to balance a push for market share against signs of an emerging surplus. The hiatus comes during a period of weaker seasonal demand, and as the market closely watches how U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil producers impact supply, said the Bloomberg report.
U.S. layoffs in October at 22-year high for that month; AI to blame. U.S. companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. U.S. companies last month announced 153,074 job cuts, nearly triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. “Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes,” Challenger said in the report. “Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market.” Year-to-date U.S. job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the most since the pandemic. In the same period, U.S.-based employers have announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011. Seasonal hiring plans through October are the lowest since Challenger started tracking them in 2012.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $60.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.14%.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,800.00. First resistance is seen at $4,059.90 and then at $4,100.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,973.20 and then at this week’s low of $3,935.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
December silver futures bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at $49.00 and then at $49.225. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $47.61 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Sign up here; it’s real easy. https://www.kitco.com/services
