(Kitco News) - Gold prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Silver is higher and hit another record high overnight. The general marketplace is quieter and pausing ahead of this afternoon’s conclusion of the Fed’s FOMC meeting. February gold was last down $9.70 at $4,226.50. March silver prices were up $0.67 at $61.525.
Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Federal Reserve interest rate decision this afternoon. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning ends this afternoon with an FOMC statement and then a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Markets have priced in a 90% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut from the Fed. However, the FOMC statement’s and Powell’s guidance on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy are what the marketplace will be very closely watching today. Market expectations have grown that the FOMC and Powell will lean more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy due to worries about sticky inflation.
Rising global bond yields suggest end to central bank rate cuts. Global bond yields have risen to highs last seen in 2009, signaling concerns that interest-rate-cutting cycles from major central banks may be ending soon, according to a Bloomberg report. Yields on a Bloomberg gauge of long-dated government bonds have hit 16-year highs, with money market bets underscoring that sentiment and traders pricing virtually no more rate cuts from the European Central Bank. “Bond investors are now mulling the outlook for global growth, examining inflation risks amid trade tariffs and surging government debt. Even in the U.S., where the Fed is expected to cut rates today, the outlook is rapidly evolving,” said the report. “Yields on 30-year Treasuries have climbed back to multi-month highs as investors eye a less benign outlook for monetary policy, inflation and fiscal discipline. The market shift reflects growing conviction that the interest-rate-cutting cycle, introduced last year to spur economic growth and has in the process propelled global stocks to record highs and boosted bond prices, is ending soon.”
China’s consumer inflation rate hits 21-month high. China’s consumer inflation rate surged to 0.7% in November, month-on-month, the highest since February of 2024 and versus the 0.2% rise in October. Food prices increased for the first time in 10 months and non-food inflation also rose. In contrast, China’s producer prices fell 2.2%, year-on-year, steeper than the expected 2% drop and extending China’s deflationary price pressures for the 38th month. TradingEconomics.com
CFTC to be caught up on COT reports by end of this month. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a press release Tuesday it is accelerating the publication its Commitments of Traders reports that were interrupted during the U.S. government shutdown. The revised timeline will eliminate the report backlog by Dec. 29. The CFTC previously projected data to be current by January 23, 2026. “The reports will continue to be published in chronological order at an increased frequency while maintaining data integrity. This process is consistent with prior post-shutdown publishing,” said the press release. Click here for the latest revised publication schedule.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $58.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.20%.
Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,100.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,251.70 and then at $4,285.00. First support is seen at this week’s overnight low of $4,197.80 and then at $4,150.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
March silver futures have seen an upside breakout from bull flag pattern on the daily bar chart. The bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $57.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract/record high of $62.14 and then at $63.00. Next support is seen at $60.00 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5.
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