(Kitco News) – Metals markets navigated a turbulent 2025 on their way to generational returns, and while silver was the standout performer with 127%+ gains with platinum hot on its heels at 120%, gold continued to build on its multi-year bull market with an impressive 65% gain, and copper also delivered a significant 35% return for investors.
The Kitco News Top Metals 2026 Survey showed retail traders fully on board the silver bandwagon with gold still seeing strong support, while industry experts also see potential for platinum prices to outperform next year.
Kitco News gathered the votes of 352 retail investors this week for the Kitco News Top Metals 2026 Survey, and the results showed that the majority of Main Street metals investors expect silver will outgain all other metals once again in 2026.
178 retail traders, fully 51%, expect the gray metal to lead all others during the year to come. Another 29%, or 101 Main Street investors, predicted gold would be the top gainer in 2025, while 10%, or 36 participants, expect platinum to post the strongest performance. The remaining 37 retail traders, representing 11% of the total, think copper prices will outperform other metals in 2026.
The views from Wall Street were also broadly positive toward gold and silver on balance, but some big banks and industry experts believe that the relatively undervalued platinum group metals (PGM) could be the top performers when all is said and done.
In their 2026 commodities outlook, TD Securities said lower interest rates, ongoing currency debasement, supply side dynamics and diversification will drive gold to a new high above $4,400 in the first half, and while silver prices are likely to moderate to the mid-$40s, 2026 will be the year where platinum and palladium lead the pack.
For gold, the commodity analysts said there’s no reason to think a rout is in the cards next year.
“The Fed-driven carry cost reductions, along with an expected yield curve steepening and potential concerns surrounding Fed independence, prompt us to say that the yellow metal will reach a new quarterly record of $4,400/oz in the first six months of 2026,” they said. “Looming concerns that the future Fed may not aggressively pursue a 2% inflation target, along with speculation the White House could aggressively lobby for lower rates at a time US debt is at record highs and growing, is a very important reason why we think the bullish gold trend will reassert itself.”
TD believes gold's new long-term range will be between $3,500 and $4,400 per ounce. “For prices to stay below the lower end of that range, it would take a shift in investor attention back to rising US risk asset prices, or a view change that the US job market will not weaken and no further Federal Reserve rate cuts are on the way,” the analysts said. “The absence of the US dollar debasement, de-dollarization and monetization narratives could also do the trick. But we predict the employment environment will weaken, risk markets may have a difficult time rallying next year, and we expect the US central bank to cut an additional 100bps, with 150bps expected by some in the market, even as inflation stays stubbornly above the two percent target.”
Turning to silver, TD Securities said that if you liked the #silversqueeze, you have to like the #silverflood.
“At the start of this year, the market was sleepwalking into a #silversqueeze, even as the set-up transitioned away from a demand boom towards a liquidity crisis in physical markets,” they wrote. “Heading into 2026, an epic-scaled #silverflood has resulted in the single largest wave of repletion in LBMA free-floating inventories on record. With more than 212mn oz of silver now likely freely-available in the LBMA's vaults, London silver markets have already unwound a year's worth of drain in London inventories.”
“This amount covers nearly two years' worth of global deficits, with evidence that we have reached the strike price necessary to open the taps from scrap and private vaults,” they noted.
The analysts said this massive replenishment should have a big impact on the outlook for silver because the price no longer needs to rise to refill global inventory pools.
TD Securities expects silver prices to start the year in decline, and they say the gray metal will be hard pressed to get back to current levels in 2026. “Hence, our mid-$40s projection next year.”
Their outlook is very different for the platinum group metals, however, where their bullish case clashes with the prevailing views in the market.
TD Securities analysts have chosen platinum and palladium as their top commodity picks for 2026, with TD’s price forecast approximately 20% higher than the market consensus. “The macro set-up remains strong, underscored by continued de-urbanization trends with significant implications for resulting PGM demand, alongside a strong argument for continued stockpiling trends into 2026,” they wrote. “Expect higher platinum and palladium prices, tighter forwards, higher lease rates.”
Heraeus analysts cautioned in their 2026 Precious Metals Outlook that precious metal prices will likely trend lower for at least the first part of 2026.
“The rally that has seen gold and silver at record highs and PGM prices at their highest level in years, took prices too high too quickly,” they said. “While prices could push higher in the near-term, once the momentum wanes a period of consolidation likely. The gold price traded sideways from April to August this year before the most recent leg higher, so it could take several months before the rally resumes.”
The analysts said that while investment demand helped drive prices higher, physical flows of metal to the United States were also a factor, as they impacted liquidity. “There remains some uncertainty over whether PGMs could be tariffed in some way because the US is still pursuing a Section 232 investigation as well as an anti-dumping case against Russian imports,” they wrote. “Any change could cause further stock movements and price volatility.”
Heraeus believes gold will likely have the firmest price base as central bank buying continues. “Lower interest rates could also be supportive of gold if inflation remains sticky and real interest rates decline,” the analysts said. “The high price is denting silver demand in a number of sectors, but if gold moves higher, silver is likely to follow.”
And while the platinum market looks to be the tightest of the major PGMs in 2026, Heraeus analysts said lower demand will result in a smaller deficit. “This is also the case for palladium and rhodium owing to the ongoing decline in sales of combustion engine light vehicles as BEVs continue to gain market share,” they wrote. “Of the small PGMs, ruthenium has a tighter market than iridium as the data center buildout supports hard disk drive demand, although here too the price may have got ahead of itself.”
“Downside price risks in the precious metals market remain,” the analysts warned. “The US Treasury yield curve uninverted more than a year ago and so a recession in the US could be expected to start soon, and the weakening job market fits with a deteriorating economic outlook. If a recession arrives in 2026, then the PGM prices are likely to trend lower.”
Heraeus projects the gold price to trade between $3,750 and $5,000 per ounce in 2026. “The US has so far avoided the recession indicated by the Treasury yield curve uninverting last year; however, the labor market is weakening,” they warned. “The Fed usually favors supporting the economy, so if the labor market stays weak, more rate cuts will be forthcoming even if inflation remains above target. This reduces the real interest rate, which is typically positive for gold. However, after such strong price appreciation in 2025, a period of consolidation is anticipated before the rally resumes.”
Turning to silver, the analysts said a number of demand areas are set to struggle in 2026.
They noted that silver prices hit all-time highs in December following a liquidity squeeze as metal moved from London to New York. “Rising ETF inflows and a rush of retail investor demand in September and October tightened the market and caused lease rates to surge higher and the price to hit a new record,” the analysts wrote. “The tightness appears to have shifted to China after outflows of silver back to London. However, after such a rapid ascent, the price could spend some time digesting those gains.”
They also project photovoltaic silver demand will decline in 2026 as thrifting outweighs installation growth. “After several years of significant growth, photovoltaic (PV) installation growth is predicted to slow to about 1% in 2026 following policy changes in China, the largest market,” they said. “At the same time, the high silver price has reinvigorated efforts to thrift silver in PV systems.”
Like gold, high silver prices have dampened jewelry and silverware demand, and Heraeus expects this will continue in 2026. “India accounts for about 40% of global silver jewellery demand and around two-thirds of the silverware market, and consumers have been unable to afford as much silver as the price has climbed,” they said. “The country imported 14% less silver in the year to October year-on-year.”
Heraeus forecasts the silver price to trade between $43 and $62 per ounce in 2026. “Ultimately, silver is a higher beta, i.e. more volatile, investment than gold,” the analysts said. “The drivers of the gold price, namely, economic and geopolitical concerns, US fiscal and monetary policy, central banks cutting interest rates, and their impact on the US dollar, will also influence the silver price. If gold’s rally resumes, then silver is likely to follow.”
As for platinum, Heraeus sees further gains in 2026. “Solid demand, stock movements into the US on tariff concerns, higher Chinese imports, and underperforming primary supply tightened the market in the first half of 2025 and the price responded by rallying to its highest level since 2013, with lease rates also becoming much higher than normal,” they noted. “The price peaked in October and after such a large and rapid rally a period of consolidation is likely.”
“In 2026, supply is moving higher while demand is shrinking which is reducing the market deficit,” the analysts added. “That said, lease rates remain elevated and the market is expected to remain in deficit next year, so once the consolidation period ends further price appreciation is anticipated.
Heraeus forecasts platinum to trade in a fairly broad range between $1,300 and $1,800 per ounce in 2026.
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