(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday, as softer June PCE inflation and a weaker U.S. dollar helped metals rebound after Wednesday’s hawkish Fed hold. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,107.20 an ounce, up 0.55%, while spot silver was trading near $59.27, up 1.84% on the session.
Gold’s session range was $4,028.40 to $4,101.10, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area and back above the $4,101 level that capped the early session. Silver’s session range was $57.95 to $59.27, with the metal holding above $57.95 and pushing back toward the $59.00 to $60.03 resistance area identified in the latest short-term setup.
North American equities closed sharply higher as Microsoft’s earnings reignited the AI trade and helped Wall Street reverse Wednesday’s Fed-driven selloff. The S&P 500 rose 121.48 points, or 1.7%, to 7,437.63, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 679.24 points, or 2.8%, to 24,122.18, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 613.92 points, or 1.2%, to 52,208.06 and the Russell 2000 added 39.79 points, or 1.4%, to 2,946.10. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 172.06 points, or 0.49%, to 35,505.84.
European equities also closed mostly higher. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 4.94 points, or 0.77%, to 649.95, Germany’s DAX gained 151.55 points, or 0.60%, to 25,612.03 and France’s CAC 40 added 77.37 points, or 0.92%, to 8,485.64. London’s FTSE 100 slipped 11.14 points, or 0.10%, to 10,897.27.
Positioning after Wednesday’s FOMC decision and this morning’s data remains two-sided, but Thursday’s releases eased the most hawkish edge of the trade. The Fed held rates steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, with three dissents in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, keeping September hike risk alive. This morning’s data showed real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized pace in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, while June headline PCE fell 0.1% on the month and slowed to 3.7% year over year. Core PCE rose 0.1% on the month and eased to 3.3% year over year. Initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 197,000, still below expectations, while continuing claims fell to 1.78 million. The data helped weaken the dollar and support gold, but inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and Treasury yields are still elevated, keeping the rate path a headwind.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open but highly stressed transit under active military, shipping and diplomatic pressure, not a normalized operating environment. Oil prices eased from Wednesday’s spike as markets responded to softer PCE inflation and renewed diplomacy, but the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to leave a war-risk premium in Gulf and Red Sea shipping. For gold, the impact remains two-sided: geopolitical risk supports defensive demand, but any renewed crude spike would revive the inflation-rate channel that has repeatedly capped bullion’s upside. For broader markets, the Thursday trade was equities higher, dollar lower, oil off its highs, yields still elevated and precious metals firmer.
Traders are watching Friday’s follow-through in Fed-rate pricing, any revisions to September hike odds, the next round of Fed communication and fresh headlines around Hormuz or Red Sea shipping lanes. A sustained move above $4,101.10 would keep the short-term gold recovery intact, while a break below $4,028.40 would return focus to the $3,995.20 support area.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading in the low-$80s a barrel, while Brent crude was near the high-$80s. The U.S. dollar index is lower but still holding above 101.00. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.
Technically, spot gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls improved the short-term setup after prices moved back above $4,101.10 and recovered from Wednesday’s $3,995.20 low. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,114, with a sustained move targeting $4,166 and then $4,200. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,028.40, with deeper downside targets at $3,995.20 and then $3,959.80. First resistance is seen at $4,114 and then at $4,166. First support is seen at $4,028.40 and then at $3,995.20.
Spot silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls improved the short-term setup after prices held $57.95 and pushed back toward the 100-period moving average near $58.78. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.00, with a move above that level targeting $60.03 and then $61.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.95, with deeper downside targets at $56.88 and then $56.11. First resistance is seen at $59.00 and then at $60.03. Next support is seen at $57.95 and then at $56.88.
