(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are modestly lower, while spot silver prices are seeing a deeper struggle in early U.S. trading on Tuesday, as a firmer U.S. dollar prompted some profit-taking after gold briefly approached the $4,700-an-ounce area overnight. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,634.90 an ounce, down 0.34%, while spot silver was trading at $67.900, down 1.36% on the session.
The latest market positioning remains split between softer growth data and a Fed that still has not defeated inflation. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, CPI slowed to 3.4% year over year and core CPI eased to 2.5%, but the July FOMC minutes showed three policymakers favored a 25-basis-point hike and many participants remained open to higher rates if inflation fails to cool. Fed funds pricing has moved away from a clean easing narrative, with traders now focused on Wednesday’s PCE inflation report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday for confirmation that the current 3.50% to 3.75% target range is restrictive enough.
The U.S. Treasury Department’s long-end buyback plan remains the dominant cross-asset story. Treasury is planning to at least double liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors to at least $4 billion per operation from $2 billion, starting Sept. 9 and running through Nov. 4. The initial decline in long yields has faded, leaving the 10-year Treasury yield near the 4.7% area and the 30-year yield still above 5.2%. That mix has unsettled global bond markets, supported the dollar at the margin and strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against sovereign-debt stress, fiscal credibility risk and possible currency debasement.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said this morning that “renewed appetite for gold despite elevated long-term US yields is striking.” She framed the move as a hedge against unclear U.S. fiscal plans, inflation and possible risk-asset volatility tied to high valuations and AI financing. Ozkardeskaya also said gold’s longer-term support is coming from a broader de-dollarization trade as global institutions diversify away from Treasuries and toward gold, while warning that overbought conditions could still produce pullbacks.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a residual risk premium rather than a full supply-shock trade this morning. Oil prices fell to one-week lows as traders judged the latest U.S. sanctions threat against Iran as less immediately disruptive than a military escalation, with Brent near $91.82 a barrel and WTI near $84.60. The risk has not cleared. A tanker was disabled northeast of Oman after being hit by an unidentified projectile; only two commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Monday and Iran has blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged violations of its passage rules. Gold is holding a haven bid from the same risk complex, while crude’s pullback has eased some near-term inflation pressure on yields.
U.S. traders are watching the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index at 9:00 a.m. ET, followed by new home sales, the Conference Board consumer confidence index and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index at 10:00 a.m. ET. Wednesday brings July PCE inflation, durable goods and the second estimate of second-quarter GDP. The key question for metals is whether softer demand data can offset inflation and fiscal-risk concerns strongly enough to cap yields.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $84.60 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $91.82. The U.S. dollar index is steady to firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading around 4.7%.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,654 to $4,689 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,780 and then the April swing-high area near $4,891. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,509, with deeper downside targets at $4,500 and then $4,410. Initial resistance is seen at $4,654 and then at $4,689. Initial support is seen at $4,509 and then at $4,500.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $70.08 to $72.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $67.45, with deeper downside targets at $66.48 and then $60.00. First resistance is seen at $70.08 and then at $72.00. Next support is seen at $67.45 and then at $66.48.
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