(Kitco News) – Gold’s recent price action has demonstrated that geopolitical instability, global de-dollarization and worries over U.S. dollar debasement are returning to the fore, and the yellow metal is now poised to resume its march above $5,000 per ounce, according to Christopher Louney, Director of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets.
“We’ve stayed consistent this year, sticking with the forecasts we published back in December of last year, and for good reason,” Louney wrote in his latest commodity analysis. “[W]e have highlighted that while the underlying drivers for gold may have been on pause, they remained intact. Despite more than a lost quarter for ETP holdings, we thought that the return of uncertainty, de-dollarization, and debasement concern-driven allocations remained on the horizon, and that those flows would return to push gold prices higher— a view supported by gold’s early-August recovery, current pricing, and the pattern of inflows.”
“We remain of the view that gold should spend most of its time in the $4500-5000/oz range for what remains of this year (a view unchanged and with high conviction), and we now specifically highlight our middle-to-high scenario range for Q3 and Q4 (as well as annual) for gold prices going forward,” he said. “By year-end, we are leaning towards our 2026 high scenario ($4929/oz), and similarly, in 2027, we favor our high of $5296/oz.”
“Regardless, our mid-to-high scenario range remains the most likely price band across our forecast horizon.”
In RBC’s 2026 gold outlook from December, Louney said the path of least resistance for gold remained higher this year.
“Against the backdrop of uncertainty, gold has proven itself over the course of the year, and, absent a melting away of uncertainty, we think that the strategic underpinnings of gold point to the path of least resistance being flat to higher,” he wrote at the time.
“If there is any key takeaway from 2025 that should apply to 2026, it is that, while uncertainty may take many forms, persistent uncertainty around tariffs, geopolitics, conflict, politics, government shutdowns, legislation, etc., have left investors feeling underexposed to gold,” Louney wrote. “When coupled with gold’s strong price performance and lower correlations, we think it’s now more accepted as a strategic part of portfolios.”
RBC also expected central banks to remain the backbone of gold demand through 2026.
“Beyond the volumes themselves, the narrative of sizable ongoing central bank purchases drives the broader permission structure for investors at large to continue allocating to gold,” he said.
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