(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were firmer and spot silver prices were sharply higher in early U.S. trading Friday, as oil prices slipped on renewed U.S.-Iran truce hopes while elevated Treasury yields and Fed rate-hike expectations kept bullion on track for a weekly loss. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,300.00 an ounce, up 0.62% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $64.760, up 1.62%.
Market positioning remains tilted toward tighter policy after this week’s stronger U.S. activity data, lower jobless claims and firmer housing figures reinforced the view that the Fed’s September rate increase may not be the end of the cycle. Traders are pricing about a 71% probability of another 25-basis-point increase in October, while the dollar index is near 101.2 after touching a two-month high and the 10-year Treasury yield remains near the 5.1% area. August durable-goods orders were virtually unchanged after a downwardly revised 0.9% increase in July, beating expectations for a 0.4% decline, while orders excluding transportation rose 0.3% after a 0.7% July gain. The firmer-than-expected headline print keeps the rates channel pointed against gold ahead of the 10:00 a.m. ET final consumer sentiment and inflation-expectations data, with the market still focused on whether stronger goods demand gives the Fed more room to keep policy tight.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation is still the central oil-market risk, but the latest price action shows diplomacy is partially offsetting supply fears. U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of the war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade on Iran, while Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia continue to threaten regional supply. Brent crude was near $105.26 a barrel, down 1.3%, while WTI was near $92.78, down 1.9%. Lower crude reduces the immediate inflation impulse supporting yields and the dollar, which is gold-positive at the margin, but the unresolved shipping-risk premium continues to support defensive demand for bullion.
Global equity tone was firmer before the U.S. open as AI-related buying offset concern over oil, yields and Middle East risk. Dow e-minis were up 162 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.31%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 188 points, or 0.61%, at 5:15 a.m. ET. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were on track for weekly gains, with tech and communication-services shares leading, while Brent above $100 and the 10-year yield near 5.1% limited broader risk appetite.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $92.78 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $105.26. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.1% area. The U.S. dollar index is firmer on the week but off its highs near 101.2. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,304.00 to $4,345.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,396.00 and then $4,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,245.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,216.00 and then the $4,181.00 to $4,216.00 range. First resistance is seen at $4,304.00 and then at $4,345.00. First support is seen at $4,245.00 and then at $4,216.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $64.920 to $65.830 area, with a move above that zone targeting $67.231 and then $68.000. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $62.750, with deeper downside targets at $62.350 and then $61.460. First resistance is seen at $64.920 and then at $65.830. Next support is seen at $62.750 and then at $62.350.
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