(Kitco Commentary) - By trial and error! (I first became interested in gold and silver as an investment in the mid-1960s).  My rate of success has slowly but steadily improved ever since.

(Kitco commentary) - The first chart (courtesy stockcharts.com) tracks a 15 week gold cycle that bottoms at the green arrows. The brown arrows point to tops in the cycle. This week marks the start of week #6.