Price pressure on gold amid higher USDX, lower crude oil

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Friday, as lower crude oil prices and a higher U.S. dollar index are bearish daily "outside market" forces working against the precious metals, amid a lack of other fresh fundamental news to end the trading week. October gold futures were last down $5.40 at $1,791.50. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.089 at $20.26 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly flat overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have had a good summer as prices have been trending higher on the daily bar charts since early June. The "sell in May and go away" stock market maxim did not work this year. However, the historically turbulent months of September and October lie just ahead for the stock market bulls.

Traders and investors are still discussing this week's U.S. inflation reports that came in a bit tamer than expected. While this week's CPI and PPI reports suggest U.S. inflation may have peaked, it appears the Federal Reserve will remain on its path of aggressively tightening U.S. monetary policy to tamp down still-problematic price inflation.

We are into the "dog days" of summer, whereby much of Europe is on vacation and trading volumes in many markets wanes as family vacations take traders away from the marketplace. Trading volumes may remain lighter until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.


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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $93.30 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.868%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the October gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at this week's high of $1,814.40. First support is seen at Thursday's low of $1,788.50 and then at this week's low of $1,776.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $20.605 and then at this week's high of $20.83. Next support is seen at $20.19 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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