(Kitco News) - Global gold ETFs registered a net outflow of 59 tons or $3 billion in October, marking the sixth straight month of declines.
The October numbers mean that global gold ETF flows are now net negative year-to-date, down 52 tons on the year, according to data from the World Gold Council.
Gold ETFs started strong in 2022 with net inflows of 316 tons from January to April amid geopolitical risk events and rising inflation. But U.S. dollar strength and hawkish Fed policy led to net outflows of 368 tons from May to October.
At the end of October, total assets under management amounted to nearly $184 billion, or 3,490 tons, the lowest tonnage since April 2020, the analysts said in the report. October’s outflow was less pronounced than September’s 95 tons decline, however, as gold prices were relatively steady during the month.
The report noted that all global regions saw tonnage outflows in October, led by funds in North America (-40 tons for $2 billion) and Europe (-14 tons for $750 million). Chinese funds accounted for virtually all Asian outflows during October (-6 tons for $308 million), while funds in other regions saw a negligible outflow.
Gold-backed ETFs and similar products are used by institutional and individual investors to implement their investment strategies, so ETF flows often reveal short-term and long-term market sentiment about the precious metal.
Global physical demand for physical gold has remained strong, however, with the World Gold Council also reporting that central banks bought 400 tons of gold during the September quarter, a record which amounts to a full year’s worth of purchases most years, and a 300% jump from the same period a year ago.
Central banks have purchased 673 tons since January, which is more than any other full annual total since 1967 — when the U.S. dollar was still backed by gold.
Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Qatar were the biggest known buyers, but many of the biggest purchasers were unidentified. "The level of official sector demand in Q3 is the combination of steady reported purchases by central banks and a substantial estimate for unreported buying," the WGC report noted. Countries known for not reporting their gold purchases regularly include China and Russia.
Turkey bought 31 tons of gold in Q3, which boosted its gold reserves to 489 tons. Uzbekistan added 26 tons to its gold reserves during the quarter, and the Qatar Central Bank added 15 tons, all of it in July, which is its biggest one-month acquisition on record.
Looking ahead, Tuesday’s midterm elections in the United States should be good for equity markets, according to historical data, “Midterms are a de-facto ‘referendum’ on the sitting administration’s performance,” the WGC noted. “It has been customary for the incumbent to lose ground, frequently resulting in decision-making gridlock. The consequence of this has been a perceived reduction in macro uncertainty and legislative risk, and therefore a boost for equities.”
The report noted that the impact of midterms on gold prices has been more mixed, but the precious metal has still gained 62% of the time, with a median return of 2% six months after the elections.
