(Kitco News) – The war in Iran and the ramping up of defense spending in Europe as well as the U.S. are contributing to a strong bullish setup for gold prices in the medium term, and $6,000 gold is still on the horizon, according to Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GLDAX) at Gabelli Funds.
Mancini told Kitco News on Tuesday that while the gold price may have fallen since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, it’s a sign that the yellow metal is serving its purpose in times of crisis – for states as much as for investors.
“Turkey as well as the Gulf states might be selling, especially if they’re unable to export their oil and need to cover their expenses,” he said. “They have gold reserves, and gold is serving its purpose as a liquid asset right now.”
Mancini contrasted gold’s simple liquidity with the lessons the world has learned about government debt.
“Gold is an asset that is no one’s liability,” he said. “Unlike Treasuries, German bonds, or French bonds, you aren’t lending to anyone when you buy gold. When you purchase gold, you simply own it outright, but when you buy a Treasury, you’re lending to the United States government.”
“As debts and deficits grow, gold tends to become more attractive, which is one aspect of the trade right now,” he added. “Increased defense spending will likely contribute to that dynamic as well.”
Mancini pointed out that the Iran war and the surge in defense spending are happening against the backdrop of a long-term move away from the U.S. dollar.
“We’re going through a major paradigm shift in terms of the de-dollarization of global reserves,” he said. “When Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States effectively confiscated the Treasuries that Russia owned, meaning Russia had been lending to the United States, and we essentially said we wouldn’t pay them back. That event helped drive gold from around $2,000 an ounce to about $5,000.”
“We’re seeing discussions from the President and others about a potential new world order. In that environment, there’s a real possibility that the dollar may no longer serve as the global reserve currency,” Mancini said. “Running a foreign exchange surplus requires buying dollars and Treasuries and effectively lending to the United States government. Given what’s happening right now with the broader paradigm shift and evolving global order, there’s a strong chance that surplus countries may no longer want to continue lending to the United States.”
“If that’s the case, gold will become the primary alternative.”
Looking past the current conflict to the medium term, Mancini still expects gold to rise above $6,000 per ounce.
“The price was around $5,300, and it pulled back amid a bout of selling and related factors, he said. “But once things settle and this new paradigm shift takes hold, gold should move above $6,000.”
Gold is seeing continued volatility on Tuesday, with the spot price dipping to a session low of $4,607.72 per ounce shortly after 10 am EST, before recovering.
Spot gold last traded at $4,653.72 per ounce for a marginal gain of 0.10% on the session.
