(Kitco News) – Gold is seeing renewed buying interest after prices fell below $4,000 per ounce last week, but the prospect of further Fed hikes still looms over the yellow metal, while India’s easing import regime is set to boost silver consumption for the next six months, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.
In their latest update, the analysts noted that while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week, future hikes are very much on the table.
“The gold price fell initially during Kevin Warsh’s press conference before recovering, as the dollar and shorter-dated Treasury yields eased,” they wrote. “However, Thursday’s economic data reinforced the case for another hike: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in September from 3.4% the month before, with core inflation rising to 3.1%, while the US economy expanded at a strong 3.4% annualised rate in Q3. Following these data prints, gold has fallen below $4,000/oz. Markets are currently pricing in around a 76% probability of a 25 bp increase in December (source: CME Group), leaving monetary policy a substantial headwind for gold.”
Heraeus believes the slide back below $4,000 per ounce could serve to draw buyers back into the market. “When gold last tested this area in June and July, the dip coincided with a pick-up in Chinese demand,” they said. “Non-monetary gold imports rose to 173 tonnes in June, the highest since March 2024, while the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) stepped up its purchases to 15 tonnes in June and 20 tonnes in July, its largest additions since late 2023 (source: World Gold Council). This helped to put a floor under prices ahead of the August rally.”
“It is too early to say whether a similar response is under way: the Shanghai premium remains modest, and the PBoC’s October reserve data, due in early November, will indicate whether official buying has accelerated,” they cautioned. “Even so, renewed Chinese demand could help support prices after breaking below $4,000/oz.”
The analysts also noted that mining giant Newmont’s gold production remained stable in Q3, and the company is on track to meet its full-year guidance. “Attributable production totalled 1.30 moz, 1% higher quarter-on-quarter but around 8% below the 1.42 moz produced in Q3’25,” they said. “Newmont expects Q4 to be its strongest quarter of the year at approximately 1.37 moz, keeping full-year output on track to reach guidance of 5.26 moz. At that level, Newmont would account for around 4.5% of global mine production, which totalled 3,672 tonnes (118 moz) in 2025.”
Spot gold continued to trade not far from session highs on Monday morning, and last traded at $3,962.60 per ounce for a gain of 2.26% on the daily chart.
Turning to silver, Heraeus analysts wrote that India is relaxing its silver import regime, which will likely boost silver consumption over the next two quarters.
“India has issued permits for around 6,500 tonnes of silver imports over the next six months, potentially removing a major constraint on physical inflows,” they said. “The allocation is equivalent to approximately 209 moz, around 90% of the 232 moz India imported during the whole of 2025 (source: The Silver Institute). Imports fell to around 1 moz a month in May and June after licensing requirements were introduced, before recovering to 15.5 moz in August and 11.0 moz in September. Even so, imports over the first nine months of 2026 totalled roughly 87 moz, 32% less than a year earlier, meaning the new permits cover almost two-and-a-half times the volume imported so far this year, although much of the allocation is unlikely to be used if domestic demand remains weak.”
They noted that the timing of these moves is significant, as demand usually rises through the festival season heading into Diwali, which is on November 8. “Last year, imports jumped to 55.9 moz in October ahead of the festival,” they said. “The increase in licences has eased physical tightness somewhat, with dealer premiums over official domestic prices falling to $0.45/oz on 22 October from as much as $2.50/ oz a week earlier, and from around $6.50/oz in July.”
Silver prices also surged alongside gold on Monday, and the gray metal was continuing to trade on both sides of the $51 per ounce level two hours into the equity trading session.
Spot silver last traded at $50.987 per ounce for a gain of 3.77% on the daily chart.
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